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Local Government

ETHICS: Is Gary Morgan polling himself?

polldancer Only in the bizarre world of the Melbourne City council elections would a poll conducted by the candidate himself  be accepted as legitimate.

Gary Morgan, who inherited the Roy Morgan Research company which was once the leading political polling company before Newspoll and others came along, has published the results of a survey of 330 electors.

The Herald Sun and the ABC republished them, with little questioning of their origin or methodology.

The poll description says both residents and business were polled. And then also suggests that only residents in the municipality were polled.

Disturbingly, it appears that only one candidate – Adam Bandt – had his party affiliation read out to survey respondents.

Confirming the largely useless nature of the poll is the fact that 31.5% of those surveyed said they were undecided about their first preference and a further 25% were undecided about their second.

Certainly the polling – if accurate – suggests that Doyle at this stage has the most visibility of all the candidates with 87.45 people of 330 supporting him . No surprise there, as a former state Liberal leader that he’d have the most visibility. Although some people might think it’s a surprise that it is possible to have .45 of a voter.

The other extremely odd aspect of the poll is the claim that the bloke who conducted the poll had 3.5% of first preference support with 18% giving him a second preference.

Leaving aside the ethical implications of a pollster candidate conducting polling on himself, these numbers don’t make a lot of sense at all.

Discussion

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  1. The Straight Talk Express may have fallen from the sky – much the disappointment of all patriots, but the GTM Express is full speed ahead to Spring Street.

    Posted by Choo Choo | November 5, 2008, 17:53
  2. I agree a poll under those circumstances and few people polled in number is highly questionable. What was the estimated error rating?

    I would not read much into this poll. It clearly has no statistical merit. For example the 2nd preference and aggregated 1st and 2nd preference data does not take into consideration the fold up of the election and is in effect double counting votes. IE Gary Morgan would not receive any preferences from Robert Doyle as Robert Doyle out polls Morgan.

    Candidate 1st Preference 2nd Preference# 1st or 2nd Preference
    Robert Doyle

    26.5 %

    16 %

    42.5 %

    Adam Bandt (Greens)

    16.5 %

    4.5 %

    21 %

    Catherine Ng

    10 %

    15 %

    25 %

    Gary Singer

    5 %

    6 %

    11 %

    Gary Morgan

    3.5 %

    18 %

    21.5 %

    Nick Columb

    3 %

    2 %

    5 %

    Peter McMullin

    2 %

    8 %

    10 %

    Will Fowles

    1.5 %

    3 %

    4.5 %

    Others*

    0.5 %

    2 %

    2.5 %

    Can’t Say/ Undecided

    31.5 %

    TOTAL

    100 %

    * Other candidates for the role of Lord Mayor of Melbourne are Joseph Toscano, Bob Crawford & Shelley Roberts.
    # The 31.5% of people who were can’t say/undecided have been eliminated from the 2nd Preference

    Posted by Melbcity | November 5, 2008, 19:28
  3. This smacks of Push Polling to me An obvious successful attempt by Garry ‘Cheapskate’ Morgan to attract some free publicity. SHAME SHAME SHAME.

    Posted by Media Watch | November 5, 2008, 21:17
  4. Gary Morgan better give up his day job. The 1st and 2nd Preference column adds up to more then 100%. Imagine him as Lord Mayor, The budgets would not add up.

    Who introduced the direct election system anyway? What a joke.

    Posted by Bean counter | November 5, 2008, 21:23
  5. 1st preferences 100%

    2nd preferences = 74.5 % plus 31.5% unknown = 106%

    1st and 2nd preferences = 143 % plus 31.5% unknown = 174.5%. Definitely something wrong here.

    Posted by Bean counter | November 5, 2008, 21:29
  6. Gary Morgan forgot to mention that Doyle had placed the Liberal Canidates Council teams with Peter Clark and Fiona Snedden last on his ticket.

    The table of performers and appearance negotiations based on registered voting tickets. (Columns: Group registered tickets; Rows: Candidates in ballot paper order)

    Group Candidates A B C1 C2 D E F G H I
    A: FOWLES A FRESH VISION KANIS, Jennifer 1 6 31 31 8 18 7 16 31 6

    MUSCATELLO, Lisa 2 13 32 32 10 19 16 17 30 26

    B: MORGAN CLARKE – OUR CITY – YOUR COUNCIL CLARKE, Peter 6 1 5 5 12 20 11 26 5 11

    WATTS, Jackie 5 2 13 13 11 21 10 27 11 15

    WOOD, Margaret 21 3 14 14 13 22 17 28 12 16

    C: FORDE AND McEWEN – INDEPENDENT LOCALS FORDE, Brian Michael 11 11 2 1 6 23 12 14 29 14

    McEWEN, Sophie E. 10 5 1 2 5 24 13 15 28 27

    D: THE GREENS OKE, Cathy 8 7 8 8 1 11 14 18 27 7

    LEPPERT, Rohan 7 27 3 3 2 12 26 19 9 8

    AIR, Alister 12 28 6 6 3 25 27 20 26 28

    LANCASTER, Donna 13 29 4 4 4 26 28 21 25 29

    E: TEAM MELBOURNE ONG, Ken 29 8 9 9 24 1 5 5 14 12

    BORAZIO, Jerome 9 21 15 15 23 2 18 6 24 30

    SMYTH, Trent 17 22 16 16 22 3 22 7 23 31

    BISHOP, Marion 16 23 17 17 21 4 29 8 22 32

    F: McMULLIN-WILSON FOR MELBOURNE’S FUTURE LOUEY, Kevin 31 12 11 11 32 5 1 22 7 9

    SHELTON, Jane 4 30 18 18 29 6 2 23 6 17

    COATE, Celia 15 31 19 19 26 27 3 24 10 18

    CHERRY, Rebecca 14 32 20 20 25 28 4 25 32 19

    G: ACTIVATE MELBOURNE (Doyle) JETTER, Carl 30 10 7 7 31 7 15 1 13 13

    BINI, Luciano 20 24 21 21 30 8 19 2 21 20

    DIAMANDIS, Michael 19 25 22 22 28 9 23 3 20 21

    SWEETMAN, Fiona 18 26 23 23 27 10 30 4 19 22

    H: PASSION FOR MELBOURNE SNEDDEN, Fiona 32 4 12 12 14 29 6 29 1 10

    RANKIN, Keith 27 14 24 24 15 30 20 30 2 23

    CHALKER, Vernon 26 15 25 25 9 31 24 31 3 24

    LEE, Wellington 25 16 26 26 16 32 9 32 4 25

    I: C MELBOURNE GROW – CATHERINE NG SHANAHAN, Brian 3 9 27 27 7 13 8 9 8 1

    PAGLIANITI, Connie 28 17 10 10 17 14 21 10 15 2

    DASTAN, Neslihan 24 18 28 28 18 15 25 11 16 3

    CHRISTOPOULOS, Con 23 19 29 29 19 16 31 12 17 4

    DAWSON, John 22 20 30 30 20 17 32 13 18 5

    The following table represents the published preference recommendations for each of the groups nominating candidates for the City of Melbourne Lord Mayor’s Race 2008
    (Columns: Group registered tickets; Rows: Candidates in ballot paper order)

    Ticket Group A B C D E F G H I J K
    A ACTIVATE MELBOURNE 1 4 10 6 11 11 6 3 9 3 8
    B C MELBOURNE GROW – CATHERINE NG 3 1 3 7 6 8 8 2 10 5 3
    C SHIFTING THE BURDEN 9 8 1 11 5 7 11 8 8 11 9
    D PASSION FOR MELBOURNE 11 7 7 1 4 5 9 5 11 7 2
    E THE GREENS 8 6 2 4 1 3 7 9 4 9 5
    F MELBOURNE SUPERCITY. WORLD 6 11 4 9 3 1 2 10 5 6 10
    G RESIDENTS EQUITY – AFFORDABLE RESIDENT RATES 5 9 6 10 8 4 1 11 7 8 11
    H TEAM MELBOURNE 2 2 5 5 9 9 3 1 6 4 6
    I FOWLES A FRESH VISION 7 10 9 8 2 2 5 6 1 2 4
    J McMULLIN-WILSON FOR MELBOURNE’S FUTURE 10 5 11 3 10 6 4 4 2 1 7
    K MORGAN CLARKE – OUR CITY – YOUR COUNCIL 4 3 8 2 7 10 10 7 3 10 1

    Posted by Melbcity | November 5, 2008, 21:42
  7. Fatty Doyle should have encouraged John So to run again, but on a joint ticket.
    It could have been the ‘FATSO’ ticket.

    Posted by anon | November 5, 2008, 21:59
  8. Good to see Choo Choo back in action. Not long now until Red Ted is removed as leader.

    Posted by Anon | November 6, 2008, 0:10
  9. David Wilson would make a good Mayoral candidate. He should be first on the ticket and the youthful genius with the Fowlemobile should be his deputy candidate.

    Posted by Anonymous | November 6, 2008, 9:33
  10. Jennifer Kannis lives in Moonee Valley, not Melbourne!

    Posted by Squeaky | November 6, 2008, 10:20
  11. Squeaky you are right she is not shoing up on the City of Melbourne voter’s roll.

    Posted by Anon | November 6, 2008, 16:37
  12. Kanis, Jennifer Michelle 407 Racecourse Road
    Kensington

    Posted by Anonymous | November 6, 2008, 17:08
  13. i work for roy morgan, and let me say the polling is ridiculously skewed and the professionalism of the company is extremely low.

    gary morgan fires employees with no need for justification, earlier this year he had fired 70-80 people with no clear justification.

    also gary has fired employees on the spot for smoking in front of the company building. it is said that this is due to his moral hatred of smokers due to someone close to him having died of lung cancer.

    but one of the roy morgan research’s biggest project is market research for Phillip Morris…a tobacco company.

    sounds like hypocrisy to me and we can’t have someone like that being the mayor of such a great city.

    Posted by Lawerence Parker | November 6, 2008, 19:34
  14. Robert Doyle was seen last evening totally wasted eating solo outside Ricardo’s restaurant in Bridport St Albert Park. Why was he not supporting the restaurants in the city he wishes to represent.

    Posted by Vex spy | November 7, 2008, 9:39
  15. My dearest Fatty of all dear Lord Fatties.

    You should know that you never have to get totally wasted on your own.

    I, the great McPerton QC am always happy to assist you with matters pertaining to cuisine and alcohol.

    Speaking of which, where are we going for lunch today?

    I was thinking of Il Solito Posto, 12.30pm.

    Posted by McPerton | November 7, 2008, 10:03
  16. Still sobering up from last night’s episode at Ricardo’s – I should have stayed away from the European Whiskey, dear Victor!

    Was a grand day yesterday at the VRC, then at Ricardo’s. Lots of yummy mummies to view.

    Where were you yesterday, Victor? Flemmington is not the same without McPerton.

    See you at 12.30.

    Posted by Fatty Doyle | November 7, 2008, 11:39
  17. Melbcity has published a critic of Catherine Ng,\’s Testimonial statements and has raised a number of interesting questions as to the implied endorsement of her campaign to become Lord Mayor of Melbourne.

    Posted by Cathy's Testimonial | November 8, 2008, 1:20
  18. Even though Fatty completely betrayed Peter McMullin and Tim Wilson in their preference swap – he is still welcome at Yarra’s Edge Bar and Restaurant where I work as a waiter (and part time drag performer). Probably looking for a new boyfriend since gay marriage campaigner Tim Wilson (my boyfriend) told me to stay away from him until after the campaign. Obviously, I am not marriage material.

    Posted by Carla Dubois | November 8, 2008, 16:08
  19. Maybe Gary should make his hand go to sleep before he polls himself so it feels like someone else is doing it

    Posted by Alex | November 20, 2008, 8:20

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