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Betfair says Coalition 77% chance of winning federal poll #auspol

Former Liberal staffer Daniel Bevan is getting into the election spirit, putting out a release shortly after the PM’s unexpected announcement this afternoon of the September 14th election date, pointing out that Betfair, which runs a nicely liquid market on election betting, participants don’t think much of PM Gillard’s re-election prospects.BetfairBetfair Politics
30 January 2013
www.betfair.com

 

GILLARD A 23% CHANCE OF SUCCESS ON SEPTEMBER 14

Election date announced with Labor $4.20 outsiders and Coalition $1.27

 

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has announced the federal election date with her party rated only a 23% chance of clinging to power when Australia goes to the polls on September 14.

 Unlike betting with bookmakers or the TAB, punters on the Betfair exchange bet against one another at odds of their own choosing. This means markets react instantly to any change in public opinion and give a more accurate prediction of true outcome probabilities.

 In November last year, Labor was as low as $3 and the Coalition out to $1.50, but on the current odds of $4.20 for Labor and $1.27 for the Coalition, there is a 77% chance of a change of government in September.

 Betfair’s Daniel Bevan said: “Prime Ministers usually set the polling date during periods of strength and only a couple of months before election day.

 “According to Betfair punters, Julia Gillard has departed from both traditions and goes into this long campaign a long way behind.

 “The only upside for the Prime Minister is that she has strengthened her grip on the Labor leadership and is now $1.20 to stay in the top job until election day.”

FEDERAL ELECTION

 

Labor                     $4.10

Coalition              $1.27

 

ENDS

Further enquries to:

Daniel Bevan
Communications Coordinator
Betfair Pty Ltd

Office: +61 3 9947 5965
Mobile: +61 404 945 395
Email: daniel.bevan@betfair.com

Level 13, South Tower | 459 Collins Street | Melbourne | Victoria | 3000

www.betfair.com.au

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