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For the election savants among you: Detailed analysis of likely Senate result from Tasmania #auspol #politas

For the election savants among you: Detailed analysis of likely Senate result from Tasmania by the extremely thorough Dr Kevin Bonham.

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  1. The probable outcome of 3 Liberal, 2 ALP and 1 Greensparty in Tasmania is likely to assist the Coalition in winning at least 20 seats out of the 40 coming up on 14 September. There are plausible scenarios where the Coalition can get 4 in WA and/or Queensland and/or less likely in New South Wales.

    The 2010 result led to the Greensparty holding the balance of power in the Senate. The 2007 election Senators are coming up now. That was a relatively good election for the ALP and Greensparty as it led to a change of government and a Xenophon controlled Senate based on the 2004 election continuing Senators.

    As the State Senators will not take office until 1 July 2014, some nine months after the election, the current Senate will be quite unmanageable for any Coalition government unless the ALP succumbs to stunning policy changes following an electoral Armageddon.

    Posted by Giuseppe De Simone | June 26, 2013, 0:52

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