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LIBS HOPE: Talk of Oakeshott going rogue on Gillard electrifies Coalition

oakeshottThere’s much speculation in Club Fed circles at the moment that country member Rob Oakeshott is contemplating “doing the dirty” on Julia Gillard and installing Tony Abbott as Prime Minister for an early double dissolution election.

While his colleague and friend Tony Windsor is thought to be on the verge of announcing his retirement, Oakeshott is younger and is said to be gravely worried that the Nationals will be able to defeat him at the next poll if he sticks with Labor.

Sources say he has been surprised at the extent of the backlash to him personally from his decision to put in Gillard, which started as a negative and then has only worsened since Gillard was sworn in, with the assistance of the Greens party.

Bob Katter, the country conservative independent who sided with the Coalition, is believed to be intent on keeping the heat on Oakeshott, even occasionally making publicly disparaging remarks about his formerly close political colleagues, Windsor and Oakeshott.

Those familiar with the matter though say that Katter has kept up a private dialogue with Oakeshott in particular and is of the view that he could be turned, in certain circumstances. The idea is that, to help Oakeshott, Windsor would go along with his power-play.

“Oakeshott’s looking for a good excuse or as Fraser would have put it ‘reprehensible circumstances’” one optimistic Tory opined today.

Katter is thought to be playing a continuous go-between role liaising between Tony Abbott’s office and Oakeshott.

This is partly what has informed Abbott’s public declaration over summer that the two indies should consider doing the government in. Coalition strategists believe the right amount of heat applied to Oakeshott will have him cooked nicely by mid-year.

Oakeshott has already indicated publicly to the pesky Rudd-vehicle Fairfax’s Phil Coorey  in remarks that probably should got much more attention than they did that he was actively considering dumping the Labor government.

Just before Christmas, Mr Oakeshott told the Herald he and Mr Windsor planned to sit down at the end of this year and assess whether to keep backing the government. If they decided Labor was not up to scratch, they would change sides.

”If everyone delivers … what they have committed to, there’s no reason to change. But no one should get lazy in implementation and delivery,” he said.

Liberals and sources familiar with the country independents’ strange wheat-chewing ways say that this statement reflects a deep anxiety in Oakeshott that the government is in big political trouble and that he might need to make a spectacular gesture to make it clear that he’s not a Labor stooge. It’s rumoured that in return for this spectacular gesture that there would be undertakings from the Nats not to be run aggressively against the controversial independent whenever the election was held.

Interesting times…


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  1. This douche will get dumped none the less because the electorate now know what a spectacular twat he is.

    Posted by Sotherby | February 9, 2011, 14:13
  2. And it’s not even Christmas! Thank you Santa.

    Posted by Monika500 | February 9, 2011, 14:13
  3. I’m no fan of the Gillard Government and think that Oakeshott is a complete tosser, but somehow I suspect he is never going to back Abbott and will continue to support the ALP Government on matters of confidence and supply.

    Posted by Anonski | February 9, 2011, 14:41
  4. And you’re a candidate in which electorate Sotherby?

    And as for this article – if he splits there will be a general election, and then my good pal Sotherby, you will get the largest twat in the southern hemisphere in charge. Add Barry O’Fumble as your Premier and you’ll be residing in Joke Town.

    Posted by Wendy | February 9, 2011, 14:45
  5. Wouldn’t we all be better if we just voted in the greens hey Wendy, I’m not in NSW douche bag and I look forward to a bunch of mongoloid Greens getting elected in March to illustrate once again to the electorate how fucked up you lot are.

    Posted by Sotherby | February 9, 2011, 15:40
  6. A few points about the double dissolution aspect. Even though the Senate that created double dissolution triggers by blocking Rudd government legislation is still in place, those triggers cannot now be used as the basis for a DD because of the election held on August 21. The constitution states that the Senators elected at that election *shall* take their seats at the appropriate time – and since a DD would prevent them from doing so, it can’t happen.

    Furthermore, Antony Green argues that any trigger which emerges between now and July 1 could also not be used: “In granting a double dissolution, the Governor General has the right to assess whether a deadlock exists. If a double dissolution trigger was gained before July 2011, it would seem unlikely that any request for a double dissolution would be granted without the bill also being put to the new Senate after 1 July 2011.”

    So any deadlock producing a DD would have to occur after the new Senate took its place. It seems likely than no such deadlock would occur, as the government in most cases will need the support of the Greens (i.e. Adam Bandt) to get legislation through the House, and having gained this support would have no trouble getting it through the Senate.

    All that being so, the election being proposed would have to be for the House only (plus the four Territory Senators). This would throw the House and Senate electoral cycles out of sync, resulting in separate elections for the House and half the Senate (the next of which must be held in late 2013 or early 2014), such as we had from 1963 to 1972 – until the cycles are brought back in sync by either an early House election to coincide with a half-Senate, or a future double dissolution. That’s not to say it won’t happen though.

    Posted by William Bowe | February 9, 2011, 16:12
  7. The Coalition under Abbott couldn’t pull it off at the last election, so if it goes to a double disolution, what in the world have they done or said since that would give anybody a reason to vote for them next time.
    But I can give you two good reasons not to vote for the Coalition: 1) I write this while on a trip to the USA and it’s clear from here that the NBN is an urgently needed piece of infrastructure for Australia if it is to catch up with other countries on interent services; and 2) Australia is falling behind on its Global Warming commitments and, if the Coalition have the chance to put the brakes on then the world will be worse off environmentally and Australia will be worse off economically. Although, politically Global Warming is on the nose in the USA, industry in this country is doing some fantastic things. If we don’t move quickly, Australia will simply lose any hope of jobs in these exciting and fast growing industries.

    Posted by Anthony Element | February 9, 2011, 16:13
  8. Good one Anthony. People for vote for the Coalition because of two words “Wasteful Spending”

    Posted by Pot Stirrer | February 9, 2011, 16:52
  9. Good one Anthony. People would vote for the Coalition because of two words “Wasteful Spending”

    Posted by Pot Stirrer | February 9, 2011, 16:52
  10. Dear Anthony Element,
    answers to the two points you raised:
    1. NBN – is an overly expensive white elephant in the making – for confirmation read report in today’s Financial Review. Business thinks its a waste of money.
    2. Global warming? You got to be joking. We were told of continuing droughts, high temperatures – look at the record cold weather in Europe/USA/Asia and the high rainfall in Australia and many other countries – weather is variable – get over it!

    The reason to vote for Tony Abbott is that he is not a pushover on the NBN and Golbal warming political snakeoil.

    Posted by Independent supporter | February 9, 2011, 17:09
  11. The Gillard government will probably lose the next election but the Abbott opposition should be trawling all their branches and local councillors and state MPs for every scandal, wasted funding etc, and running them through the new cycle. There are dozens and dozens, but they need to run them and put the final nails in the coffin.

    Posted by Realist | February 9, 2011, 17:18
  12. Aaaaahhhhhhh, Jokeshott!

    Must be suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome again.

    Posted by Syphologist | February 9, 2011, 17:47
  13. But what about ME!

    Can I be on the Senate ticket if there’s a double dissolution?

    Nick, Alex, Natasha, help me please.

    Posted by Miles | February 9, 2011, 18:15
  14. Anyone for a massage?

    Posted by Scott Farlow | February 9, 2011, 19:18
  15. I am with independent supporter, and while we are it lets dispose of this politically correct round earth nonsense, and evolution – where’s the evidence I say!!!

    Posted by WTF? | February 9, 2011, 21:02
  16. I have seen the light – Tony Abbott is the man, sorry Ronno and Helen.

    Posted by Scotty Fifield | February 9, 2011, 21:03
  17. WTF – all I can say to you is WTF!!!

    Where is the evidence for global warming? Is the climate hotter now than any other time in the last 2000 years (Answer No – plenty of evidence for hotter and colder times than now).

    Is the Earth round? No it’s a sphere and not a perfect one at that.

    As for evolution – you need to evolve to become more thinking.

    Posted by Soldier with no fortune | February 9, 2011, 21:22
  18. If Oakeshott wants to save his political future he should move swiftly. The longer he remains associated with Jooolya and her circus of ineptitude, the more likely he is to be scalped at the next election.

    Posted by Gregoryno6 | February 9, 2011, 22:18
  19. Only matter of time….Oakeshott is adventurous but not foolish. He wanted to punch Nationals in the face which he has done. But as Extremists Greens will put gay marriage and carbon tax on table Windsor and Oakeshott will have no option but to switch sides.

    Oakeshott is also glued to impending defeat of Peter Besseling (poor besseling)…. Wait for March 26… Gillard story is about conclude!

    Posted by Patriot | February 9, 2011, 23:24
  20. If Oakshott “rats” on the deal with Labor he would be cutting his own throat. No Labor preferences, no chance at an election. As for Abbott winning, next time he’ll need more than just 3 word cliches.

    Posted by Rivoboy | February 10, 2011, 7:44
  21. Patriot, with respect must disagree. Joakeshott is indeed foolish – any time he opens his mouth this is confirmed.

    Posted by Anonski | February 10, 2011, 8:51
  22. “If we don’t move quickly, Australia will simply lose any hope of jobs in these exciting and fast growing industries. ”

    The idea that someone out there is stupid enough to believe that not throwing money at CC could cost us jobs is always enough to cheer me up in the morning. Thanks mate!

    Posted by Mick | February 10, 2011, 9:09
  23. @ independent supporter, any wonder you chose than name, dumping your only supporter so quickly! Fancy me calling the earth round! I felt so foolish! So I looked it up and “round” means ‘being such that every part of the surface or the circumference is equidistant from the center’ while conversely sphere means ‘a three-dimensional surface, all points of which are equidistant from a fixed point’

    But as a flat earth believer like you, the three dimensional bit I don’t believe anyway. So I think I am OK.

    I agree with you too, the lousy evidence only shows what might happen, lets all do nothing in case it doesn’t happen rather than save the world’s resources in case it does!

    I have only recently been approved to evolve, but hey I have been voting for 30 years!

    Posted by WTF? | February 10, 2011, 12:37
  24. […] let this be true . . . There’s much speculation in Club Fed circles at the moment that country member Rob Oakeshott is contemplating “doing the dirty” on Julia Gillard and installing Tony Abbott as […]

    Posted by Oakeshott to rat??? « politichix | February 10, 2011, 16:23
  25. Has anyone noticed that The feckless Oakeshott in the above photo completely missed his left nostril and therefore was totally unable to massage his lagging frontal lobe.

    Posted by dudzira | February 10, 2011, 19:52
  26. Rod Oakeshott please shave that beard off as it is not a good look. It makes you look like a hippie or a Rabbi

    Posted by Captain (Retired) Adrian Jackson, ASM (SE Asia), DFSM & Clasp, ADM | February 11, 2011, 9:57
  27. Adrian Jackson, please shave that merkin off as it is not a good look. It makes you look like a harpie or a cross-dresser!

    Posted by Real | February 11, 2011, 10:27
  28. Joakeshott will never Rat on the Party he loves and desperately wants to be a member of – the ALP.

    Posted by Anon | February 11, 2011, 10:40
  29. “Coalition sources are hopeful that the right amount of pressure on Tony Oakeshott could have them back in government as early as this year.”

    who is Tony Oakshott is he the one with the beard

    Posted by Anonymous | February 11, 2011, 10:46
  30. If Jokeshott “rats” on Juliar, what’s to say he wouldn’t do the same thing with the Coalition. He cant be trusted – don’t go near him Tony.

    Posted by PolyWatcher | February 11, 2011, 10:54
  31. We don’t need them Tony, just preselect me for Dobell and I can deliver… Pretty Please…

    Posted by Kristy Knox | February 11, 2011, 11:17
  32. Real – the real cross dresser is the Israeli Foreign Minister. Check out “her” photo she looks like a bloke in drag.

    Posted by Captain (Retired) Adrian Jackson, ASM (SE Asia), DFSM & Clasp, ADM | February 11, 2011, 11:29
  33. you are asuming that Tony will still be leader – now where is my abacus?

    Posted by Smokin Joe | February 11, 2011, 12:44
  34. Yee Hah, head ’em up, move ’em on!

    Posted by Frank Falkner | February 11, 2011, 12:49
  35. Oakshott’s primary vote was below 50% (47.15%)at the last election. The only way he can win at the next election is if the Coalition does not stand a candidate.

    Posted by Dryasachip | February 11, 2011, 13:53
  36. Adrian, I assume from your many years of stellar service in the filing department you FOI’d a tremendous amount of material regarding the female anatomy?

    It’s not for nothing you were known as “Captain Thrush” among the boys at the barracks.

    And you would fill your smalls if you came up against the girls of the IDF. They are alert and armed….

    Posted by Real | February 11, 2011, 13:56
  37. Oakeshott is shot. Can’t feel sorry for the lad, if he’s dumb enough to hitch himself to Joolia’s wagon then he deserves to sleep in the wilderness.

    Posted by Real men wear beards | February 12, 2011, 9:11
  38. The problem with you young uns is that everything has to be instant.
    Oakeshott is the only one who talks sense. You rascals should try the technique of listening.
    Your mates, the ‘wet behind the ears’ scallywag reporters, as we used to call them,only undertand words with less than one syllable and trip over their own opinion pieces to point out in hushed tones that it only takes a by-election if one of the Government MP’s flees the scene altogether. Apparently the other mob don’t die. Wishful thinking you blue-blood sycophants. Jeeves!! Where’s my musket!

    Posted by Major General Uppsett, DSO and bar | February 12, 2011, 10:21
  39. Theirs going to be a double dissolution one can count on it!!!

    Posted by Andrew Rixon | February 12, 2011, 12:12
  40. @Drysachip, Jokeshot will be lucky to get his deposit back.

    The coalition could run Mark Latham in a Tutu (shudder) and still win. In fact I think the ALP could win in that conservative seat with a naked Mark Latham (yuk) if the Libs chose not to run, such is the ill-will towards the bearded boghead.

    Posted by Jokebag's a douchebag | February 12, 2011, 15:35
  41. @Jokebag’s a douchebag: Thanks, you’ve amply fulfilled this thread’s quota of mentally scarring Mark Latham images…

    Posted by Gregoryno6 | February 12, 2011, 21:20
  42. Jokeshott thinks that he knows what relevance deprivation syndrome is!

    He doesn’t know the half of it!

    Posted by Nick Campbell aka the Johnson & Johnson Bloke | February 13, 2011, 2:10
  43. Katter’s personal style and adhoc policy posturing may amuse the city based folk but he looks like the smartest of the 3 indies. He is grabbing any labor spending he can for his area but he can still bag Julia and the greens at the next election. Jokeshot and windbag Windsor may be queen makers but me thinks the mad katter is wiser and will be around much longer.

    Posted by As mad as a katter | February 13, 2011, 8:23
  44. Mr Oakeshott must wish he was a respected political strategist like I am.

    My strategy is to not preselect candidates for winnable seats, then resign three weeks before an election campaign and leave others to clean up the mess.

    It is strategies such as these that have made me so respected.

    Posted by Shambles | February 14, 2011, 12:53
  45. Before Oakeshott gets onto that, he may want to re-think the wisdom of a parlamentary budget office in the parliamentary library. In the US, it is SEPARATE from the Congressional Library, and with good reason. It should be a separate dept/office in the Parliament. Wake up!

    Posted by No to a PBO in the Parliamentary Library | February 17, 2011, 7:40
  46. Heck. I have no idea what will happen with the current parliament. One thing is certain though – from 1 July 2011, if ALP Government legislation passes the House of Representatives, it will pass in the Senate. This is the key factor that means any change of government through a vote of no confidence is likely to result in an earlier election (possibly as early as August 2012) and this is likely to be a double dissolution. While the Liberal/National side came close in 2010 to 50% of the incoming Senate, it fell short in Tasmania, so the anti-Coalition continuing Senate numbers (assuming the Victorian DLP is pro-coalition on most issues), end up at 19:17 which makes a coalition majority in a half-Senate election, well nigh impossible requiring a 22:18 split (or 4 out of 6 in 2 states) a virtual impossibility. Much better to get a Senate with independents such as Xenophon and the DLP in the middle where the numbers split 6 coalition:5 ALP/Greens:1 other in two out of three States like Western Australia, Queensland or South Australia or even New South Wales at a pinch. Victoria will most likely split 6 conservative : 6 left and Tasmania will probably go 5 conservative : 7 left with 2 or 3 greens out of the 7 (requiring respectively 15.4% or 23% of the vote). So my belief is the ALP won’t want a double dissolution at all and the Liberals will definitely want one. The decision is made by whoever is in government advising the Governor-General.

    Posted by Giuseppe De Simone | February 22, 2011, 22:52
  47. What right minded person would listen to Bob Katter. If he was American his electorate would be in the deep south and he would live in a log cabin with all his cousins (well he does wear a big cowboy hat).

    It is a bonus he went to the coalition. Can you imagine the nutty requests he would be putting forward when he claims his pound of flesh. Like a rabbit he pops out of the hat, kicks his legs, wriggles his nose and then disappears down a hole.

    Posted by Bob who | February 26, 2011, 22:35


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