Local Government

SUCCESSES: Roy Morgan Poll reveals dimension of McMullin and Fowles campaign effectiveness

The month long Lord Mayoral campaign in Melbourne saw front-runner Robert Doyle close the deal and win in a result that has already horrified the latte left establishment of Melbourne.

While Doyle won the count, it’s clear he didn’t win the campaign.

Taking a look at the initial polling down by Roy Morgan, it’s clear that Labor candidates McMullin and Fowles ran very strong campaigns.

McMullin had the advantage of substantial resources and a very able group of hard working Labor moderate and Liberal campaigners. Peter was massively disadvantaged with time though, previously anticipating he would be running as John So’s deputy. The statistics reveal that an extra month of campaign time would have been enough to ensure McMullin’s victory, against even the strongest of foes like Doyle. In the space of one month McMullin’s support soared by 625%.

Equally impressive on the hustings was the Socialist Left machine behind Will Fowles. Will and his crew of Monash Uni left-wingers door-knocked many tens of thousands of homes over several months and did very well with an increase of 573%. It is a creditable performance that reflects very well on him and his plans to replace Bronwyn Pike, the Education Minister and Member for Melbourne.

Nick Columb, the colourful racing identity and businessman also improved his vote but nowhere near as much. He didn’t use direct mail – a big omission in what is basically a database marketing exercise – and suffered for it. Where he did exceptionally well was in the flesh, in debates, on radio where his gift of the gab shone through.

Gary Morgan also improved, by 100% from his poor showing in his own opinion poll. It would be churlish to neglect to mention the accuracy of Morgan’s own polling. We don’t know his methodology and were initially sceptical about his motivation but clearly the results were quite accurate. His direct mail material was good, the issues were carefully identified by Peter Clarke who had clearly been a diligent and conscientious councillor.

Human headline Gary Singer did similarly well, largely on the back of some very slick material and – we suspect – benefiting from the big decline in Catherine Ng’s vote from where it would have been without the brilliant accountability campaign that exposed her dismal attendance record.

Singer was lucky his low profile meant he didn’t attract the attention of negative material himself. His record as DLM was as scandal prone as any public official in Victoria since Thomas Bent. But most – including us – had forgotten most of this.

Those who criticise negative campaigning – and understandably Singer does for fear of its consequences for him – neglect to consider the alternative. Candidates like him getting up without a full consideration of his record.

Continuing on, Catherine Ng, despite a massive campaign spend, made no gain whatsoever during the election festival.

Why?

Because a campaign of accountability – quoting from the Herald Sun and The Age who had remarked upon her dismal attendance record at council meetings – was waged that destroyed any gains she would otherwise have made by spending $200,000.

Her campaign manager – the astute former Liberal government dirt unit operative Ian Hanke – knew what he was doing too. But it wasn’t enough.

Ng’s record of attendance was inexcusable. And it cost her plenty. On our analysis, it cost her victory. If she’d had anything like the gain that Singer did, she would have comfortably won. Indeed, a mere 40% increase would have got her there against Doyle.

Those involved can be justly proud to have stopped a deplorable and possibly psychotic candidate. While we believe the Greens Party is a blight on modern politics, even their candidate would have been better in our view.

Adam Bandt’s Greens went backwards during the campaign. Their strong showing is a credit to the strength of their brand and also reflects the absence of the Labor one. Another factor in their strong initial support is said to be the government’s apparently unpopular tunnel which is said to be very controversial in Kensington.

Doyle remained steady throughout. He kept out of trouble during the campaign. Despite some reasonably controversial policies, the press (including us) basically gave him a leave pass, assuming someone who didn’t campaign that hard wasn’t going to win.

The new Lord Mayor’s supporters say he campaigned innovatively, using business groups’ email lists and other techniques that weren’t noticed by sticky beaks at The Age.

A win is a win though, regardless of the circumstances. He traded on a public reputation he’d worked very hard to build over a long time so no one can fairly fault him for that.

© 2008 VEXNEWS 2010©.