Politics

JIHAD: Liberal Leader Baillieu resumes hostilities against factional foes

State Liberal Leader Ted Baillieu has upped the ante in his attacks on internal party factional foes, with on-the-record quotes criticising party Administrative Committee members Ross Fox and Luke Tobin appearing in The Age today in an article by – you guessed it – Ted’s little mate, Paul Austin.

TED’S FURY

The allegation is that the two are members of a small Facebook group of Liberals who support the “drafting of Peter Costello”. We can assume they weren’t referring to the National Service that the state government ex-veterans heritage officer Garrie Hutchinson was so keen to avoid.

In any case, many Liberal insiders are saying it’s clearly a massive beat-up of a pretty harmless activity. Which makes Baillieu’s weird intervention an odd thing to do but everything has an explanation.

A CUNNING PLAN

According to sources familiar with Baillieu’s plans, it is part of his strategy to oppose the structural reforms to the Party advanced by President Dr David Kemp.

Both Ross Fox and Luke Tobin were among several members on the Administrative Committee who volunteered to “sell” Kemp’s plan to the membership at branch meetings and other gatherings. Their mentor Kroger faction boss Michael Ronaldson had encouraged them to do this too.

It is the considered opinion of Krogerites that the rules changes would help cement their more professional political culture into the division with a move away from branches that are dominated by people with little better to do than bore each other senseless with endless discussions about not much.

Baillieu comprehends that the changes would almost certainly deprive him of the chance to ride any swinging factional pendulum back to power within the party he once controlled. He is also gravely concerned about losing control in his power-base in the Kooyong electorate where his faction is dominant through operatives like left-leaning Liberal Petro Georgiou.

That’s why he is desperate to oppose the change. He’s just not ready to be seen to be opposing it just yet. He is slowly making the case by now attempting to discredit those who are supporting it and attempting to tie them to allegations of disloyalty and disunity through beat-up stories about Facebook, blogs and “cancerous cells.”

The state party leader was very hopeful about all but wiping out the Kroger forces at the last state council given their spiritual leader Peter Costello had announced his impending retirement. Instead, Baillieu’s faction was seen to have made little progress against the better organised Kroger group. But Baillieu’s thirst to control the Victorian division remains unquenched.

FACTION FIGHTING WITH KEMP AS HOSTAGE

One Liberal insider fatigued by Baillieu’s approach told VEXNEWS that “This is all about who is in control. It will make the feuding over the anti-Ted blog look like a tea party. This will be the biggest internal fight the Victorian Liberals have ever had.”

Another well-informed Liberal insider revealed “Michael Kroger’s long term agenda has been to push for the abolition of branches. He wants to make them redundant. The Baillieu faction will be firing up all the angry oldies who wish to hang on to their fiefdoms til the blue rinse runs out.”

Party president David Kemp – who gravely disappointed Kroger faction militants by being seen to hang the young anti-Baillieu bloggers out to dry – has a lot riding on the reform package. Players in both factions believe that his Presidency depends on its passage.

DOUBLE TROUBLE

There’s an ordinary State Council meeting scheduled for September in Waurn Ponds in Geelong which is expected to be the scene of many back-room discussions, meeting and greeting with swinging delegates and so on. The Baillieu anti-reform agenda will start to become clearer there.

But the formal discussion and decision on whether to adopt the reforms will occur a month later in October at a Special State Council convened for that purpose.

The Kroger group are concerned that having two such gatherings will provide Baillieu and his supporters plenty of time to “white-ant”, “scare campaign” and “fear-monger” among older delegates who control branches and who could lose influence under the changes.

One concerned activist said this morning that “If Kemp had more smarts, he’d scrap the September state council in order to control the narrative a bit more. He thinks the more time he gets to expose his Old Man Winter salesmanship to the oldies the better it will be. I doubt that’s the case. Causing a panic is the easiest thing in politics.”

Kemp will certainly be championing the reforms and has made it clear in private discussions he won’t continue as Party President in protest if they are not adopted. The position is up for election in April 2009.

In order to be adopted, a two thirds majority of State Council delegates will be required to approve the changes. Baillieu is clearly shaping up to oppose any change, hoping that he’ll be able seize control of the Victorian division under the old rules and hoping that he’ll able to use that as the basis for reversing what some call the “cultural shift” that has occurred since the Baillieu-Kennett faction lost significant influence in the party organisation.

DEFEAT MANAGEMENT

Sometimes you have to wonder why he bothers given how damaging his forays into factional fighting have been to his reputation.

There reason lurks unpleasantly below the surface. His staff, his supporters in branches and in the party room are constantly repeating “Jeff Kennett had three chances at leading the party into an election.”

This is code for Baillieu is planning to stay on regardless of the result at the next state election in 2010. At this stage, he has the numbers in the party room to do that. But it does all seem very indulgent to be engaging in preparing the case for why Baillieu should still be Opposition Leader in 2014.

While Ted Baillieu is on a desperate quest to search for scandals to disparage his factional opponents, many Liberals are telling VEXNEWS that the biggest scandal of all is that their Party leader is not only doing very little to win in 2010 but is already positioning himself to re-contest in 2014. The smart money is on Terry Mulder having a crack in early 2010. As things stand, he is still a fair way short of getting a majority but insiders say that could change at any moment.

© 2008 VEXNEWS 2010©.