Liberals
CULTURE WAR: Liberal latte sippers v conservative sceptics fight the battle of the Latte Curtain
Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership is terminal, even if he had the numbers this week, they are evaporating fast after his appalling behaviour in convening a party room to discuss the government CPRS package, ignoring the result and decreeing victory for his position. Liberal insiders speculate that perhaps Turnbull’s supporters will ultimately switch to the sneaky Turnbull enforcer Joe Hockey but he seems unlikely to be a candidate at this point.
That was nearly enough to destroy his credibility. But even then his conservative foes were willing to offer compromises of all kinds, they were (then) sincere in their insistence that this was a policy issue not a leadership issue.
And that understates it. It’s more than a policy issue. It’s a question of what kind of Liberal Party they want to have.
THE BASE IS ANGRY
The Liberal Party base is energised, they strongly oppose supporting Rudd’s CPRS ahead of the Copenhagen gabfest to discuss climate change. Ask any Liberal MP and they’ll tell you they’ve received very large numbers of phone calls, emails, faxes and letters from party members and supporters. This wasn’t organised by a climate sceptic lobby. It was a tsunami wave of spontaneous concern about why the Liberals were so locked in to support this controversial policy.
Even if the CPRS is vital for the survival of the planet (and we remain unconvinced about much of it), there can be no question that regardless of the current levels of support for it that there is great political danger in its implementation.
Australia gets 85% of its electricity from coal. Our largest export is coal.
Shifting away from that is going to be expensive and painful. Jobs will be lost. People will be scared. The sacrifice involved is going to be considerable. And the apprehension of it even greater.
It is a scare campaigner’s delight.
For whatever reason, Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t see the political opportunity there.
He doesn’t want to see it, conservative MPs believe.
And part of the reason for that is that there’s a greater fight for the kind of Liberal party they have.
Do they position to appeal to the “Howard battlers”, socially conservative, aspirational people in outer burbs and regional Australia who largely walked away because of ‘Workchoices’?
Or do they sing to the Press Gallery choir? And try to keep in sweet with inner-city Melbourne and Sydney and pretend that’s ‘modernising’?
Cruelly, the split in the Liberal party room on the ETS reveals that there is a nearly 50-50 split in the culture wars in Australia’s principal conservative party.
WHAT IS MODERNISING?
The assumption that ‘modernising’ is the same as agreeing with whatever the Labor government is proposing doesn’t make a lot of sense to many Liberal MPs and Nationals MPs. That same thinking would have led the Labor Opposition to support the GST in the lead-up to the 1998 election. They opposed it vigorously – despite nearly adopting one themselves a decade before – and very nearly stole that election from John Howard. We remember even rusted on Liberal voting businesspeople telling us they were voting against Howard because of it. Labor would have seemed more ‘modern’, perhaps even more intellectually honest, by supporting tax reform at the time. But it would have had many fewer votes. And we believe the CPRS affords the Liberals a similar prospect.
Ultimately our view – untested as it is - is that the support for the government’s ETS would be very strong in those electorates that voted in favour of the “YES” case in the republic referendum. And the opposition would be very strong in the “NO” electorates, which include seats that the Liberals should be focusing on in order to win government. This is a culture war battle-front.
Those wondering what the truth is about the political opportunity should perhaps look at some of the hardheads in the senior ranks of the government. Contrary to Malcolm Turnbull’s assertion, they don’t want an election on the CPRS. Sure, on climate change, on Liberal disunity, on its weakened leadership, but certainly not on the implementation of the big tax and spend package that will undoubtedly cost jobs.
If Tony Abbott comprehends it and can move quickly to exploit the opportunity then he is clearly the man to cause Kevin Rudd the most disruption, the most Opposition at the next election.
And isn’t that what the Leader of the Opposition is meant to be doing?
Discussion
46 comments for “CULTURE WAR: Liberal latte sippers v conservative sceptics fight the battle of the Latte Curtain”
Post a comment
Delusional. Without supporting an ETS we’ll loose city seats.
***they’ve received very large numbers of phone calls, emails, faxes and letters from party members and supporters***
Dang right they have. My fax machine has developed a nasty squeaking noise in the paper transport roller due to overuse, this week.
Looks like the ETS is costing me in ways I hadn’t anticipated.
Hey anon – “Without supporting an ETS we’ll loose city seats”.
What city seats?
The Coalition hold no inner city seats – unless you count Chrissy Pyne’s seat of Sturt which is now so marginal because he’s such a prissy wanker.
Elections are decided in outer metro and regional seats – exactly where an ETS will hurt the most.
Kelly must be a little concerned?
[...] By VEXNEWS ⋅ November 27, 2009 MalcolmTurnbull’s leadership is terminal, even if he had the numbers this week, they are evaporating fast after his appalling behaviour in convening a party room to discuss the government CPRS package, ignoring the …Read Original Story: CULTURE WAR: Liberal latte sippers v conservative sceptics fight the battle of … [...]
***without supporting an ETS we’ll loose city seats***
Uh huh. Yep, what’s not to love about an $1100 tax on families- each year? That’s gotta be a vote winner in this economy.
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr……
Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!!!
You idiots. Even if every brain dead moron that listened to 2GB faxed you, it would still be a minority. Hope you’re comfortable in those opposition benches, suckers!
Abbott and Andrews are fundamentalist Catholics – apart from the Mad Monks experiment with the withdrawel method.
Sure Rudd is a god botherer but he doesn’t shove it down anyone’s throat. It wouldn’t be a return to conservatism, it would be a throw back to 1950s Australia that would make the Howard years look like the age of Aquarius.
Turnbull missed the opportnity to differentiate the Libs – concerned about environmnet but not prepared to sacrifice jobs by agreeing to the government’s scheme. He is obviously destined to either resign, or imitate the Black Knight until some-one (Tony Abbott?)takes mercy on him!
Let’s just hope they don’t replace Turnbull with Hockey who is a smooth bully.
The Libs should try a leader who is credible and pragmatic and who the electorate will recognise as decent and well-meaning (even if they make mistakes).
But how am I supposed to get on the front bench?
Hey Terry, anon said CITY seats, not INNER city which you disingenously talk about. If the Libs are seen as climate change denialists, which they are running a pretty big risk of thanks to Nick ‘Communist Conspiracy’ Minchin and Tony ‘People Skills’ Abbott then seats such as North Sydney (NSW), Mayo (SA), and Costello’s old seat start to go as well. The Coalition would have to win just about every regional and outer metro seat – impossible given a fair few outer metros are also Labor strongholds, and regionals are very susceptible to a good independent…
Ill have to change views AGAIN!!!
To suck up to whoever is at the top…
Turnbull should never have been allowed to join the Liberal Party. He’s an obvious Labor infiltrator. The quicker he goes the better. Good riddance, and don’t let the door hit you on your way out!
We must support the ETS!
We must support Kevin Rudd!
That’s what Menzies would have done. He was a climate change believer.
To not support the ETS is to betray the Menzies-Fraser-Peacock-McPhee-Petro-Troeth-Turnbull legacy.
Let’s put our industry at a competitive disadvantage and compound the global recession, unemployment and the housing affordibility crisis! Let’s also have a massive increase in prices so that pensioners can’t afford to heat their homes in winter. Turnbull and the Liberal Left are all heart!
The actions of a politician who becomes seduced into over-protecting industry is a bit like being seduced into thinking that the best way to look after a tiger is to present it with slabs of steak on a regular basis rather than take it into the jungle and say “go find food”. The tiger would much prefer its meat on demand, but it is bad for the tiger and bad for the jungle. …
Consequently, the best thing a government — and ultimately a parliament — can do is set the parameters based on environmentally valid policy for carbon-free energy and industry and then get out of the jungle.
Australia, with its unique assets and competitive spirit, should be jumping to lead the world in alternative low-carbon energy production. But it is giving all of the signs of being left languishing on the sidelines while the US and Europe again ride to riches and success.
One reason for this may well be that the same private entrepreneur politicians who insist on feeding the capitalist tiger chunks of meat are also failing to provide the dynamic incentives for private enterprise.
“Sure Rudd is a god botherer but he doesn’t shove it down anyone’s throat.”
Forgotten about the Diertrich Bonhoffer speech already?
***hope you’re comfortable in those opposition benches, suckers!***
Hey, Blue : your desperation’s showing.
Abbott is evil religous vermin – I so hope he is murdered.
Abbott is a little too moderate for my tastes, but, hey, if the left hate him then he can’t be all bad.
Tudehope for PM!
Abbott needs Sandra Mercer Moore – if he doesn’t give Andrews a shadow portfolio, he is going to lose on those very verile testicles!!
Turnbull is on a winner with the ETS and doesnt really care about the leadership as he will leave Politics and go back to Goldman Sachs who will be the biggest winners from the emission credits.Looks like the conscious of a few has been pricked.
Thankyou for exposing the myth of “Modernising” or “Transition from Howard” that has been become the most inane talking point.
What is it modernising about trying to accomplish what previous “Liberal Reform Movements” have failed to do and turn us into electoral poison that is the Australian Democrats?
If you want to move the Liberal party to the left and make it a progressive party then be honest about it. Don’t hide behind this meaningless talking point of “modernisation”. It shows up your stand-for-nothing politics with a means-nothing catch phrase.
Only Labor and Green voters admire Liberal leftists. But they admire from afar, they will never vote for them.
The inner-city difference here VEX is that the “action on climate change” is now an onerous tax. It will also be shown to be a pointless tax after Copenhagen fails.
Inner-city latte sippers were behind the Republic and Kyoto because, in their minds, they were meaningless feel-good gestures. This ETS tax asks them to put their money where their mouths are, and they will baulk.
I am in Byron in Wahroonga. What jolly fun!
How dumb is Connie? As one prominent MP put it; she was only ever in it for the ComCar.
She spoke in the party room in support of Turnbull and the ETS. Now, after everyone else has resigned she decides to tender her resignation for fear that she might lose he preselection. Where is the principle in that?
And, to top it all off, by resigning and not backing Malcolm she has all but delievered the leadership to Hockey – a person who she will tell anyone is the worst possible option for the party.
Has anyone seen Scott Failow’s twitter of late? “There is no wagon like a bandwagon”. Says a lot about Farlow’s political belief set.
Why am I even in the Liberal Party?
Turnbulls out Hockey in, again not the right man for the job . But we will see if he is all bull or has the right stuff. Sorry Tony a day to late.
Turnbull has no troopers – Laurie Oaks
Turnbull has no troopers – Laurie Oaks http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/general-malcolm-turnbull-has-no-troopers/story-e6frfhqf-1225804740641
… and once this is settled, we can work on the Victorian Liberal Party…..
I always had a strong fondness for young boys.
Higgins and Kooyong are inner city seats!
True Believer Turnbull – NOW A MEME!!!:
http://memegenerator.net/True-Believer-Turnbull
Make your own!
Can you imagine the type of campaign Labor can now run, its going to be a blood bath no matter what front the libs try to put on from here to the election.
So you really think people will vote for a huge tax that will put up the price of everything and for nothing other than making Rudd look good. Petrol will not go up in the first three years the tax off set is removed and it will sky rocket.
If the Libs could pull there finger out and let people see the ral cost of voting for Rudd and his ETS then they could do OK. Its more a problem of getting the message out.
The ETS is a huge tax con. Even if you believe in the warming religon then Australia is less than 2% of CO2 emissons and its just crazy to tax every one and push industry and job off shore for no gain.
Leadership aspirants: DO YOU WANT THE BLOODY JOB OR NOT ?!?!?
I’m sick to death of the “I want the job, but if someone else stands I might not” type of comment flying around the media at present.
Grow a pair. Take the LEADERSHIP. Get some blood on your hands. Stop oozing this pretence of fake sincerity.
I wish David Clarke would get out of my opus dei. It really hurts.
WHile Turnbull isn’t ideal, at heast he has taken a stance on an issue which most people believe to be true – climate change. Hockey would be mad to take on the leadership no- anyone who does will be slaughtered at the next election. I’m no fan of any of them, but for my bit I say Turnbull should stay and the vile right wingers of the party should leave of be forced out.
Connie is the only person who could possibly think climate change is about her.
She’s still quite distressed that the terrorists perpetrated 9/11 against her.
All I want to know is A-Hawke putting his hand up?
Politicalrealist, we should be shifting the political discourse in this country to the Right, with the Left at the opposite end of the spectrum taking the center… etc. What use is there in constantly reacting to the Left, in turn shifting our discourse to theirs in “modernising” [quite the neologism if I've ever seen one]. We should be taking the lead and not waiting for the Left’s move and copying that or pretending it’s ours in the first place!
Ever thought that you can only do that from GOVERNMENT, Julian?
Blue Dog Patriot, I’m more inclined to a Gramsciian view of things. Why is it that when in government so called conservatives do nothing to repeal leftist dogma made law, i.e. anti-vilification legislation? Why is it that ‘conservative’ governments increase immigration, or do nothing to stem the tide? I could go on forever about such betrayals. I tend to see this as due to the cultural hegemony belonging to the Left; I guess it’s less scary than thinking that there’s no authentic Right in Australian parliamentary politics…