Federal Government
THE NUMBERS: Impossibly tight Turnbull v Abbott contest, cakewalk for Hockey if he runs
Many Liberal patriots have been checking in and sharing the joy about who is lining up with whom in the event of a Turnbull v Abbott contest. The widespread assumption that Turnbull couldn’t win – as we reported yesterday – is wrong but he’s certainly in all sorts of trouble.
That Turnbull v Abbott contest seems increasingly unlikely if Joe Hockey decides to risk Turnbull’s wrath and challenge him. If that happens, all bets are off and Hockey will trounce Turnbull, if Turnbull actually stands, Liberal insiders tell VEXNEWS.
If Joe Hockey doesn’t have the ticker to run, or it doesn’t suit his lifestyle, as some Abbott backers fear, the Liberal leadership contest will be so close that it seems nothing will be resolved they say, even if Turnbull does narrowly win as this list suggests.
But some in the conservative wing of the party are confident that Hockey is all but there. He’s done the rounds, he’s lined up his deputy, he’s watched the Turnbull interviews and then heard the howls of outrage from colleagues about just how unhinged and malevolent their Federal Leader has appeared.
And of course, the CPRS vote hangs over their heads like the Sword of Damocles. If Hockey doesn’t announce he’s running tomorrow, there continues to be an outside chance that Turnbull backing Senators will implement what they regard as “party policy” by voting with the government on their ETS legislation. This would suddenly make the CPRS issue academic and might theoretically help Turnbull in the party room on Tuesday by dispensing with the issue finally.
That’s if they’re not all strung up Ceaucescu style on top of Parliament House by angry Liberal party members and supporters who have rebelled on this issue in a manner party insiders say is unprecedented. It’s well worth reading the well-connected Liberal Right political commentator Tim Andrews’ article on that issue, it confirms what we’ve heard from stunned Liberal staffers about the incredible reaction. MP’s and especially Senators not used to hearing much from the unwashed have been stunned and it’s definitely been a factor helping Abbott along.
TURNBULL v ABBOTT
So here’s the list. Please don’t regard it as definitive, it isn’t, it can’t be without each person telling us who they are voting for, but it has been fused together from a number of well-placed sources who keep an eye on such things. And of course, if Hockey runs it’s all academic. He’ll win in a leisurely stroll, with a quick-step over the freshly dug Turnbull grave.
The list shows that despite a fierce Catholic bashing campaign against Abbott by some MPs who should know better that he remains a very competitive candidate with a pretty solid 42 votes.
Abbott is not the most collegial chap, acknowledged as brilliant but not the chattiest or friendliest of blokes around the party room. That the maverick and eccentric former pugilist has got this far shows just how badly Turnbull has done in handling the CPRS issue and in fulfilling his role as Leader of the Opposition. Oh credit must be given to shrewd numbers-counting of Senator Nick Minchin. He’s turned an impossibility into a real chance. And that’s the real reason why Turnbull launched into the highly regarded Senate leader this morning, he knows that even with the numbers, Turnbull has been mortally wounded.
TURNBULL TALIBAN 44
Bailey (zzz)
Bilson
Birmingham
Bishop, J
Boyce
Brandis
Briggs
Broadbent
Ciobo
Colbeck
Coonan
Dutton
Gash
Georgiou
Haase
Hawke
Heffernan
Hockey
Humphries
Hunt
Irons
Johnston
Keenan
Kroger
Laming
Ley
Lindsay
Macfarlane
Morrison
Moylan
Payne
Pearce
Pyne
Randall
Robert
Ronaldson
Ruddock
Somlyay
Stone
Troeth
Trood
Turnbull
Washer
Wood
ABBOTT ARMY 42
Abbott
Abetz
Adams
Andrews
Back
Baldwin
Barnett
Bernardi
Bishop, B
Bushby
Cash
Cormann
Eggleston
Farmer
Ferguson
Fifield
Fierravanti-Wells
Fisher
Hawker
Jensen
Johnson, M
Macdonald
Marino
Marion
Markus
Mason
May
McGauran
Minchin
Mirabella
Parry
Ramsey
Ryan
Robb
Schultz
Secker
Simpkins
Slipper
Smith
Southcott
Tuckey
Vale
CONFUSED COMBATANTS (possible defectors from Turnbull) 4
Bruce Bilson (never liked Turnbull, doesn’t like Abbott, happy with Hockey)
Alex Hawke (really doesn’t like ETS but had forged an alliance of sorts with Turnbull, would much prefer Hockey but his supporters say has now walked away from Turnbull)
David Johnston (WA blokes don’t like ETS – their State Council voted 110 to 1 or something like that against it – but they’ve stuck with Turnbull so far)
Michael Keenan (WA shadow minister)
Connie Fierravanti-Wells has been considered a possible defector from Abbott but that seems unlikely now, especially after eventually quitting her Parliamentary Secretary position over the ETS after much pressure from her Sydney conservative backers.
Discussion
22 comments for “THE NUMBERS: Impossibly tight Turnbull v Abbott contest, cakewalk for Hockey if he runs”
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Add Pearce to uncertains, has fallen out with Turnbull.
J Bishop’s vote is up for grabs to save her deputy leadership.
Hawke is a certain Abbott vote.
I think u will find the liberal national party in qld just unanimously opposed the ets at their conference today also.
Annab speaks the truth.
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/National/2009/11/29/LNP_denounce_Rudds_ETS_399819.html
kroger and ronaldson will for abbott over turnbull
But I am Turnbull’s numbersman.
I shall not stab my rich friend in the back.
Torn between two former lovers
Feeling like a fool
Save us from Malcolm, please Joe.
Please save us.
As Sophie has said, the average person doesnt know what ETS means to them and their future (financally etc) and that should be addressed and layed out on the table for the average person to understand. I’m not sure that the way the Libs are going with Rudd is the right way – just needs to come out in the open more for the average person. If its ok then sure go ahead but as is now the case there are question marks and that needs to be addressed. I personally feel that Sophie and Abbott are doing a good job, in such that they are questioning and looking after the people that voted for them. Is that such a bad thing??
heffernan
hawke
fierranvanti-wells
will all vote for abbott
Anon you are talking through your wrong hole.
David Johnston and may be Heffernan but Rono cant turn, he has made his bed. Turnbull is a disaster for the Libs
Hawke will surely go Turnbull. He’s had too much beef with the conservative side to go Abbott.
I’ve heard rumours that Coonan could swing Abbott’s way.
coonan will also definately vote for abbott
i think farlow is going to vote for penny’s fat mum
Selena is right. Rudd is manic and out team is getting on board for something very very few understand. With the scramble for places on the Senate ticket it will be interesting to see which window principle flies out of, pity we have such a poor lot on offer but that’s factions for ya!
***I personally feel that Sophie and Abbott are doing a good job, in such that they are questioning and looking after the people that voted for them. Is that such a bad thing??***
Only if you’re a Labor MP.
In that case, you can destroy 9000 mining jobs in WA, 6000 in Queensland, and still claim to represent working families. At least Malcolm is representing the views of self-centred Wentworth yuppies in his support for the ETS. What’s Greg Combet’s excuse?
***Hawke will surely go Turnbull. He’s had too much beef with the conservative side to go Abbott***
Ahem.
Try visiting Alex’s website, before making such an uninformed comment?
Bring Back Joh B, you knobheads
Barnett should be in Turnbull column.
Hawke and Heffo are closet Lefties and will vote for Turnbull.
I’ll vote for Biggus Dickus, the Leader for me must be well hung. Pssst I’ve heard Tony is tiny.