State Government
FIRST BLOOD: Altona gives Victorian Labor a big double-digit wake up call
Looks like an 11-12% swing to the triumphant Liberals in the Victorian by-election for Altona.
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED FOR TED BAILLIEU
The Libs aimed for a double-digit swing. Anything less would have been disappointing. But even under their weakest leader in living memory, they’ve done it. A big result for them that has already done wonders for morale. After years of hopelessness, hope has now been restored for Victorian conservatives.
The Victorian ALP Government is Labor’s strongest show in the Commonwealth. At least according to published polls.
But an Opposition, led by a man who frequently shows signs of profound political ineptitude, is showing signs of life. It might not be the beginning of the end for John Brumby but it’s certainly the end of the beginning. His government has been strong and sound on many things but has frayed at the edges on others. On a few, it is repeatedly ideologically indulgent.
It has an Attorney-General whose instincts on law reform are well to the left of mainstream and are simply not acceptable in a modern Labor government. His ways belong in a Gough Whitlam/Lionel Murphy time-warp. He thought if was funky to appoint a magistrate with a drink-driving conviction and an illustrious past at Labor law firm Slater & Gordon announced (a media release went out not a leak) the week of the by-election. Beyond belief. A front-page Hun axe-attack was inevitable and thoroughly deserved. Whatever the merits of the appointment, the politics and timing was appalling. The support received from the Victorian Bar, the Law Institute and even 3AW’s top-rating lawyers Ross and John underlined the fact that the chauffeured Big End of Town often thinks differently from the battlers.
WAKE UP 1TP AND SMELL THE LATTE
In many respects, the Liberal bunting today at Altona booths might be right, this could be John Brumby’s wake-up call. One his government needed.
The Libs have every reason to be pleased. If it bleeds, you can kill it. After more than a decade in power, the voters of Altona have shown a willingness to have a good look at the Liberals. Yes, there’s changing demographics out there, in Point Cook etc., a flood of new voters. But these are the kinds of voters Victorian Labor needs to win over.
And they are there to be won. They remain sceptical about Ted Baillieu, a weak leader with bad values. A leader who was not central to the Libs messaging in Altona, he’s not regarded by 104 Exhibition Street Liberal HQ as a weapon to wield to win voters and that itself confirms our thesis that he ought be removed.
The next state election is Labor’s to lose though.
Brumby needs to think very carefully. How many cultural lefties, inner-city types, people who – like Ted Baillieu – don’t get it are in the business of providing him advice? They don’t know how to win. Don’t know how to speak to or for a majority. He reads this site. We like his ways. He’s Labor’s best Premier by a country mile. He needs to look around the well-dressed people in his office, the familiar faces in his Cabinet with a new questioning in mind.
Who are the passengers? The ones urging on inner-city ideas for a government only made possible initially by the enthusiasm of regional and outer suburban voters?
This is not a factional thing. There’s a culture war constantly going on and his government needs to decide is it with the latte sippers or the patriots? Time to choose. Time to get rough with those who won’t.
Who are the self-important prima donnas? What do they add? Will they even stay in the party after they lose their seats or their big salaries?
It’s time to get serious. Or start packing.
THE LIBS ARE BACK. GAME ON
And for the Libs. It’s a brilliant result and very good news, of course. They are doing some things right. Peter Ryan in Police is smart. Pledging more cops, more secure train stations, all that, is good. They can’t go wrong on law and order, you’d think. But Robert Clark calling Police corrupt not so smart. Attacking Chief Commissioner Overland in any shape or form is stupid. Faking stats is risky. Ted Baillieu calling us all racist criminals is brain-dead.
But there’s bad news too. An 11% swing strips the few doubters in the party room of any compelling reason to change Leader. To put Mulder in charge or even the radical option of putting the Nats Peter Ryan up front would be the best way of not just terrifying Labor but making the Coalition seriously viable in November.
Now that won’t happen. Ted Baillieu will be the Liberal leader at the next state election. A man unfit to lead a state political party, in our view, except possibly the Greens. His instincts are repeatedly wrong, he’s a born latte sipper.
After years of relative slumber, we have woken up to interesting times in Victorian state politics. The Liberals are back in town but while Baillieu remains, they’ll continue to make wrong calls that will make the final victory very difficult.
If anyone’s offering tasty odds on a hung Parliament, it might be worth taking them up on it, because it’s “game on” in Victorian politics once again.
Discussion
92 comments for “FIRST BLOOD: Altona gives Victorian Labor a big double-digit wake up call”
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Good result for the Libs. If a 11% swing translated to November 2010 it would be bye bye Brumby.
GOOD BYEEE CALL>>>
Brumby’s mob are stuck.
Fighting the amwu. cfmeu and etu.
Trashed the rights of migrant alp members and councillors for his own petty faction fight.
And attacking a now huge Indian community (70,000 on the role moron Nick Reece) that they are yet to face in the north, east and south.
He cannot fix the under investment in public transport by election time, he cannot fix myki becuase it is a dog of system, he will not address crime becuase Hulls is an idiot and Cameron non existent ministers, and he will keep fighting the Indians on the smart advice of his all Greek advisers and dodgy co-owners of now bankrupt college scams.
This did not have to be the end of labor – arrogance and stupidity has given victory to a deadbeat and lazy opposition.
Over the years Brumby has learnt alot about the machinery of government but nothing about Victorian voters.
Now is the time to take a deep breath and think about how we rebuild labor over the next ten years and reconnect it to the labour movement and to the new and growing migrant communities because Brumby can’t.
Good Byee Call For Brumby
Brumby is disaster to ALP he is Fake.
Good Byee Call For Brumby
The Greens are the real losers tonight. They only got attracted 2.5% of the 12.5% swing against Labour.
Is this the first time Altona has gone to preferences?
Too soft on crime
too soft on a narrow base of overpaid advisers
too soft on under performing minister
too soft on putting in joke mps
too soft on maddens pro development nonsense
too soft on over spending public servants
too soft to govern
your hero is hollow Andy
Did the sausage stunt at Altona Meadows by Brumby and HENnessy look like attempted vote buying? The TV camera’s angle didn’t quite show the whole setup so it’s impossible to tell….but if they were free snags or provided by the ALP then I’d be very worried if I was either of them.
Well done Altona. You gave the ALP
something to think about – apart from getting their Gucci shoes splattered from having to walk the few token streets of the west, in a pathetic show of “we really do care”. Well Brumby got his gal in. Great! Let’s see if she still has a seat as an MLA in Government come November. For all the movers and shakers at the big end of town…it is now time to start quivering and quaking. The times they are a changing. Remember fella’s, its not for the good of the party, its for the good of the people. Why is it that is so hard for you big end boys to grasp that concept? Viva the people!
Ted really is a toff from toorak, as Liberal Party MPs call him.
how about the smug bunting at altona booths featuring brumby and the tag line; “Labor funded this school”. Not smart, but smug and self indulgent. Where i come from, the victorian taxpayer funded this school, ALP, Liberal, Socialist Alliance and everything in btw. Made me feel ill and angry!
Well done, the ALP Right cancer spreads right throughout the country, love it. How the hell do these wankers get to this point? I am a lifelong ALP voter and former member, as are my family. We are going to vote anyone but labor both state and federal, and we know how to direct preferences BTW. Why? Well this goes for state and federal: branchstacking, spivs & hacks, betrayal over workchoices, ETS is crap, public transport, Rudd’s a wanker, Brumby arrogant, Andrews & Cameron are morons, local member is a lazy cow, corruption, lack of rank and file democracy, anti-union, cannot stand Gillard, they are all just talk, talk, object to money going to private schools, Hulls useless, police corruption, I could go on and on. The Libs are bad but at least we know who the enemy is.
Cranbourne 11.3% to Liberal
Niddrie 11.23% to Liberal
Narre W South 10.95% to Liberal
Bendigo West 10.57% to Liberal
Ivanhoe 10.46% to Liberal
Albert Park 9.7% to Liberal
Narre W North 9.24% to Liberal
Northcote (1) 8.53% to Greens
Geelong 8.34% to Liberal
Macedon 8.18% to Liberal
Bellarine 7.96% to Liberal
Yan Yean 7.92% to Liberal
Carrum 6.72% to Liberal
Monbulk 6.69% to Liberal
Seymour 6.67% to Liberal
Ballarat East 6.65% to Liberal
Ballarat West 6.55% to Liberal
Eltham 6.49% to Liberal
Bentleigh 6.33% to Liberal
Bendigo East 5.4% to Liberal
Ripon 4.36% to Liberal
Burwood 3.75% to Liberal
Richmond (2) 3.65% to Greens
Brunswick (3) 3.64% to Greens
Prahran 3.56% to Liberal
Mordialloc 3.55% to Liberal
Frankston 3.23% to Liberal
South Barwon 2.29% to Liberal
Melbourne (4) 2.02% to Greens
Mitcham 1.98% to Liberal
Forest Hill 0.78% to Liberal
Gembrook 0.72% to Liberal
Mount Waverley 0.32% to Liberal
I was on several polling booths and the libs got a good reception, the socialist alliance got… no reception, the greens got a little reception and the ALP… luke warm at best.
Time for a change.
Now we need to have a look at who the Libs have ready in these seats?
Cranbourne 11.3% to Liberal = Geoff Ablett
Niddrie 11.23% to Liberal = finn crusader
Narre W South 10.95% to Liberal= Cr lorraine wreford
Bendigo West 10.57% to Liberal = Livev music and band promoter
Ivanhoe 10.46% to Liberal = ?
Albert Park 9.7% to Liberal=?
Narre W North 9.24% to Liberal=Fraser
Northcote (1) 8.53% to Greens ?
Geelong 8.34% to Liberal ?
Macedon 8.18% to Liberal?
Bellarine 7.96% to Liberal?
Yan Yean 7.92% to Liberal?
Carrum 6.72% to Liberal = Jeff Shelley
Monbulk 6.69% to Liberal = ?
Seymour 6.67% to Liberal=
Ballarat East 6.65% to Liberal= A Dr?
Ballarat West 6.55% to Liberal = ?
Eltham 6.49% to Liberal=?
Bentleigh 6.33% to Liberal= Elizabth Mikker
Bendigo East 5.4% to Liberal=?
Ripon 4.36% to Liberal= Vic Dunn
Burwood 3.75% to Liberal= Watt
Richmond (2) 3.65% to Greens = ?
Brunswick (3) 3.64% to Greens = ?
Prahran 3.56% to Liberal= Clem Newtion Brown
Mordialloc 3.55% to Liberal = Cr Paul Peulich
Frankston 3.23% to Liberal= Gary Rowe
South Barwon 2.29% to Liberal= Cr Andrew Katos
Melbourne (4) 2.02% to Greens =?
Mitcham 1.98% to Liberal= Deanne Ryall
Forest Hill 0.78% to Liberal= Neil Angus
Gembrook 0.72% to Liberal= Brad Batton
Mount Waverley 0.32% to Liberal= Michael Gidley
Darkhorse. Almost six out of ten people supported the ALP. We can have our nerd talk about swings if you wish, but only 12% of people bought the libs propaganda.
58% wanted nothing to do with your crap!
What a crock of shit from the commenters above. 10% is an average by-election swing. For a 3rd term government who has completely botched public transport (city) and water (country) a remarkably light touch up.
This is no cause for Ted or the Liberals to celebrate…
An 11% swing … hmmmm.
Factors to be condidered:
1. FF absent – OK lets be generous and say 1/3 of that vote went directly home to Liberal = 2.25%
2. Donkey vote – again being generous, let’s say 1% went to Liberal.
3. Long standing high profile local member leaving the seat – personal vote of about 2%.
4. Normal by-election swing (protest vote) of 3%.
OK… so what is the underlying general poll swing to Liberal – being extra generous???
IT’S 2.75%!!!
Hardly a ringing endorsement of Ted or Team Liberal – and hardly a stinging rebuke of Brumby & Labor.
Actually, I know the Libs are concerned – and I know the ALP are quietly satisfied with this result.
They are on track for yet another term in Victoria – which has NEVER been done before by the Labor Party.
Dante at 00:10 is Mark Boxsell @markboxsell on Twitter that is.
Dante you are the typical arrogant Labor hack who has sold out our party and riddled it with crooks and Monica Lewinsky’s. Dont worry about Ted being untasteful the big issue is Law and Order and there is now a difference between the wanky style of Hulls and the more definate approach by Robert Clark.
If anyone was in doubt about how out of touch the ALP is, watch Today Tonight on monday it will certainly get tongues wagging and fingers pointing.
And another major concern for Team Liberal in this result…
ALP HQ conducted a very deliberate live market “test” in Laverton North.
The Labor campaign message here was all about Ted’s role in the closure and sale of a very local school.
Ted’s approval of the closure was pushed – as was his role in selling it off.
What happened in Laverton North???
Labor fought Liberal to a standstill, and halved the general swing in that area to about 6-7%.
Now, given all of the factors going naturally against Labor in Altona – this means we can expect corrective action campaigning from ALP HQ based on this message, and hospitals, and transport services etc…
It worked in Altona, and it will work in virtually every other electorate.
Ted is the Kim Beazley of Victoria. Everyone thinks he’s a nice guy, but when it comes to the crunch, they will never put him in office.
Remember when Beazley won Ryan with a big swing in March 2001? Didn’t matter much by the time Aston rolled around. And counted for nothing by November that year.
Tonight’s result will probably be the high point of Ted’s leadership. He’s OK as a protest vehicle, but people won’t hand him actual power.
There still hasn’t been a poll that has recorded the Coalition primary vote above 40% – and they need at least 44% state-wide to fall across the line. Can’t see it happening between now and November.
Generally true TTN,
I think your estimate of the sitting (retiring) ALP members personal vote is too strong at 2% – but I will concede 1%.
To be fair though – I think you have underestimated the Liberal vote bounce because Family First did not contest.
Generally, Liberals expect at least half of the FF vote to return to Liberal in their absence…
So that would be about 3.5%, and not 2.25% as you put forward.
Anyways, your analysis is still pretty accurate – any Libs dancing in the streets tonight shpuld take a long cold shower – and a few lessons in political campaign fundamentals.
The ALP apparatchiks will be rolling out a major corrective campaign as we speak.
At best libs can expect a 2-3% swing at a general poll – and maybe up to 6 extra seats when the dust settles.
Based on this result – Labor are in for yet another term in Vic!
anyone attempting to generalise this result to a prediction of an overall election result deserves no regard at all. At best an indication, and it’s a sadly positive indication for the libs. claiming a labor ‘victory’ on this blog is the exact crap that brings us undone from the private offices inside out. nuff said – scept for ryan doing a good job in copper related stuff. reality check! dickhead.
sorry .. last word total typo! Ignore.
Glad about the typo…
Especially since I am agreeing with generalising and extrapolating 100%, as you say.
I actually think TTN is pretty spot on with his analysis – give or take a percentage point or two.
And I am certainly not claiming a Labor victory either – but predicting that Labor get it – and will campaign like Laverton Nth virtually everywhere they can.
I am not so predicting a Labor victory as I am a Liberal loss.
There is a qualitative difference.
On the Altona numbers, Labor will be elected – grudgingly.
On the Alton numbers, the Libs will be rejected emphatically.
That’s what I’m saying.
I should have included massive demographic changes since the last election too.
Maybe about another 1.5% boost for the Libs???
Years and years of neglect of the west is finally starting to backfire. This is an old government with a premier that’s never been elected by the people of this state and of course having a nutty attorney general hasn’t help. In the west we have failed with basic public transport, we have failed with basic health service (take sunshine hospital as an example its a minimum four hour wait in emergency), failed in providing proper roads and we sacked an incident council plus we dragged a lot of loyal party servants through the mud. Brumby/Hulls finally your arrogance for the west and your poor advise you have been receiving through your private offices has catched up on. Reality check you just got a 12% sing against you in your heartland and to top it off bloody Red Ted was your challenge. There must be something really really wrong in Victoria.
I think when a party machine starts talking about 12% swings as OK compared to expected 16% swings we have a problem.
We have a real problem because aside from being overly defensive and slack on crime and public transport and the international student crisis this government has not made many bad mistakes. Like Kennett in 1999 it is being punished because it has become a government of excuses rather than a political party with a vision and energy.
The Koroit by election took 16% off labors primary. It was a soft option for neglected western suburbs voters to vote for Twentyman. Crossing over to the libs is a bigger ask. 12% to libs is far worse tan what happened in Koroit. Especially when you think we had a candidate who can speak in Altona.
It is a real worry. What the 12% is saying is that the style and substance of the Brumby government is wrong on too many fronts to make it electable.
What kind of political outfit says ‘oh the 12% – they do not matter’.
Basically the ALP machine is now being run by soft yes men.
Leaders need to listen to wider circle and hear from some free agents…as reassuring as the bleating of George Lekakis (I have the Indians under control), Dan O’Brien (only deal with business they are paying for our next campaign), Nick Reece and the other PR spin doctors is recipe for defeat.
For some ministers like Cameron, who is unhappy and out of his depth the loss of government will be a relief.
At the end of the day Brumby is asking us to vote the restoration of police, nurses and teachers that Bracks put in place long ago.
This is living in the past. Like Kennett in 1999 we are asking voters to reward us for past actions.
Things have moved on…Brumby’s good economic management has put social pressures in place that are making the state groan.
Transport and crime and housing are three stress areas…where is labors reform agenda to match the massive growth it as brought to this state…..
Why is labor only harping back to the Kennett excesses….why isn’t labor standing on its economic strengths…state labor along with federal labor just got Victoria through the worst recession for 60 years in more than reasonable condition.
Who would want to live in Spain, Greece, Ireland or many US states? Victoria is out performing these places on jobs and services…
Brumby can concede that our growth brings with it challenges and put in reforms in housing, crime and transport…but everytime he does that he should remind the community that it is the strong economy that is the pressures. A little bit of humility would help
But we never heard anything about economic management and jobs during the byelection.
Instead Labor took a hit. It should have kept the swing to 4% 2pp.
Anything above that shows Labor is in danger.
Just wait until the northern, eastern and southern suburbs get to vote where dissatisfaction with crime and public transport will not be tempered by traditional voting loyalty. And Labors slack stance on ‘curry bashing’ will see the Indian, Malaysian, Fijian and Sri Lankan voters waiting with their own baseball bats at the ballot boxes in November. Again for the Brumby faction this is just another 10% of voters we do not need to take seriously’.
The Brumby faction is the biggest loser and all those poor soles who went along with a stability deal that looked after cronies but did not position Labor to win back the community support, especially in blue collar and newer migrant communities.
Meanwhile down at King street we can almost hear Nick Reece, ‘hey let’s look on the bright side….we won’t lose 24 seats it will only be 14 seats….whoops that is government.’
While this by election will be a happy hunting ground for labor bashing liberals on this site what about the greens?
Public transport and population are their core issues….where were they?
They are not seen as serious on services and other issues that matter.
The Green vote has peaked.
Last time they had a big vote was when they added human rights to their platform.
The Greens in the Victorian upper house are like second rate local councillors and have failed to use the media or attack the hot issues in our community.
The ‘Blue’ Liberals are now seen as more progressive on key social issues because the greens are silent on too many issues and won’t reach out past their mainly anglo and inner city vote base.
This softness in the Green vote gives Labor special problems in many seats as 75% of the Green vote usually flows back to Labor.
So Andy can we hear your broken record about Ballieu being too left.
May be with these calculated ‘progressive’ gestures on racism and the environment he has positioned himself back to the centre just enough to let Labor voters bypass Brumby and the Greens.
Of course Liberal policy does not match his public statements in any of these areas. eg on racism Ted will still not put any Indians in winning seats and the libs have no policy agenda on social inclusion in any level of government.
But substance does not matter it is perception. And Labor and Greens have been outplayed on some many issues by a relatively laid back Liberal who has only come alive this year.
Under the Brumby Govt
electricity up
gas up
petrol up
cost of living up
land tax up
car rego up
liquor licences up
state Debt up
traffic funs up
resignations up
Labor Party advertising up
time to go, Brumby, time to leave the sinking ship with the rest of your mates… and give Victoria a chance
forgot one
developers profits up
forgot another
MPs “useless” overseas trips up
Cheesy photo ops for Brumby, Kosky, Pakula, Batchelor, Pallas, Holding etc all up
Wake up this is more like a current 4% swing across the board at the next State election.If Ryan gets into Cameron hard and Brumby does not get the bush back it will be goodbye to a number of seats to the Libs.Greens have run out of steam and Victorian are now thinking time for a change,Labor will still win but it is the start of the reverse of 1999.
Every point in history has a juncture or event which marks a turning point.
In World War Two it was Leningrad. For Kim Beazley it was the Aston B-Election.
And for John Brumby history will record Kororoit. This was the shameful instance where a weak and indecisive Premier allowed opposing sub-factions of his own grouping to fight a futile pre-selection contest.
The results have been well chronicled on this site (perhaps the only site to do so). Altona is just another outcome of the Brumby approach – arrogant, tired, contemptous of the heartland, and totally bereft of real ideas to improve the lives of working Victorians.
How can you have a Government focused on social justice or egalitarianism, when the roles of advisors, senior bueracrats, and party officials is filled with myopic careerists whose telling characteristic is postcode snobbery and the allied desire to only reside, frequent, and support latte-sipping suburbs ?
Brumby has never given any indication that he is a real Labor person. From the days when he used to try and copy Paul Keating in his speeches and media interviews, to his lack of visible interest in any Labor cause, one thing is obvious – PUFFERY.
I’m in Altona. And I can’t find the Sunshine Pool.
The Altona result needs an investiagtion. Why doesn’t Brumby refer it to George Brouwer ? Ready, set, Locky…
Will John Brumby have a sausage sizzle next week in Laverton ? How about it ? A genuine community barbecue, when there is no election, where people can really begin to see genuine goodwill, and maybe even change their view of non-transparent politicians ! Now there’s a novel idea.
Will John Brumby have a sausage sizzle next week in Laverton ? How about it ? A genuine community barbecue, when there is no election, where people can really begin to see genuine goodwill, and maybe even change their view of non-transparent politicians ! Now there’s a novel idea. Indeed !!!!
Well; for once at least – even if it took you three attempts to put your “thesis’ in to simple English.; UR correct. A real leader, such as KENNETT in his hey-day (his early years) or the one who should be Leader now; PETER RYAN, would have really ‘cut through’ and gained at least 15% minimum swing in Altona. (Or even that great political mind PETRO GEORGIO who proved just what was possible from a disciplined and knowledgeable operative during his wonderful term as Director). For a 12.3% ant-govt swing to be achieved is a dire warning for BRUMBY; if the Opposition really got its act together, the people would have a real choice Instead of a leader who is a mixture of conservatism – but only when it suits him; and socialism – again when convenient; Dear TED trys to be all things to everyone.
Or ACTION MAN BRUMBY ; one who is not a “free enterprise” man in any shape or form; let alone a good proponent of the measures needed to bring effective services to the public in a wide variety of areas. (Witness, just for starters, Transport across all areas, Hospital Waiting Lists and false reporting of these, the shabby treatment given to victims of crime by “out of touch” judges, many who apparently believe that it is their right alone with NO opinions needed from governments on judicial penalties. I.e.; effectivley many have no idea at all on “community expectations”, as has our current Attorney, Deputy Premier Hulls also.
It is also interesting to note that BRUMBY does involve the market , but only when he needs capital. And he does this in a bewildering array of PPP’s. Methinks we poor voters are being sold short by both Leaders; One just wonders just where the state and our increasing debt-laden economy will end up in all of this; or more particularly, when we will have a “headland” statement from the PREMIER on these figures.
They ditched a candidate who created an historic swing for Labour in the last Council election (Luba) and replaced her with a dud who went past nuetral the other way to the tune of 12%. What fools!!
No You have it wrong The reason why 104 do not support Ted is quite simple.He does not belong to the Kroger faction who control Admin.Their lack of support for nonaligned Liberal candidates is legendary.Poor policy advice to candidates.Go slow tactics re giving approval for candidates media releases is just par for the course.Watch out Ted they will use you then roll you
its a by-election you tools
there is no way this swing will replicate at a general election
Brumby is facing at worst a 3% swing against him at the next election
Sure the Premier will learn from the result and act upon it; goods news for him is that the Libs won’t and Ted will stay at the top.
Electorate has a real short memory, given that Kennet destroyed Education and Health in the West, and remember what it was like trying to catch a train from the western suburbs after Kennet sold us out on public transport.
Reckon that by November, Myki will kick a few goals, Police will crack down on the scumbags in the streets and Ted will continue to be a wanker.
You labor idiots.
You will get to know opposition all too soon enough. Arrogance and ignorance are your weakness.
You can kiss government goodbye.
I agree we can’t get too excited about the result, but it is still a slap on Labor’s face.
Brumby has to listen to what the shooters are saying to his staff and Cameron’s office.
Or it’ll bite him on the bum.
In Kazahkstan we worship the Hawke.
Truth be known, your right on with your statement. If Luba had been the Labour candidate, the result would have been another victory. Luba has earned the trust of the voters in Altona. I only hope Luba decides to stand in the November election, she will definately win again on primary votes. The people of Altona fully support her. Me being one.
“Can we have more info” – Monbulk falls to Holland or McMillan for Libs, Bayswater, FerntreeGully and Scoresby retained by Ted. Go Outer East!!!
they do a pretty good latte at sanctuary lakes these days ….
I think Victorians have made up there minds already. It will bye bye Brumby in November.
‘They don’t know how to win. Don’t know how to speak to or for a majority’.
Very true, and that is why the next state election will be very close.
Too focussed with factions. Still failing to listen. Can’t wait. Bye bye Brumby
How lucky are Hennessy & Brumby that the general electorate knew nothing about the shinanigans and what really happened to stop the people’s choice, the young Labor councillor being preselected! As far as the general electorate and a lot of uninformed ALP members know, she withdrew at the last minute because she felt Hennessy was the better option. Pleeeeease! Had Grigorovitch been the candidate, as a true local and one already proven that the local electorate want, the swing would have been a hell of a lot less. On the same token, had she chosen to go public about all the tricks played & the pressures on members not to vote for her preselection (a vote she won) – a much, much larger swing would have occurred. Her incredibly strong support from several very large community & ethnic groups in the Altona/Altona Bay/Altona Meadows/Laverton areas alone would have had a huge impact on additional negative votes for Hennessy if she had chosen to let them know that she was available but the Party heavies didn’t care what the locals wanted. Whilst I admire her tolerance and fortitude in keeping quiet and refusing to let the newspapers do the real story for the “greater good of the Party”, I am disappointed that we lost the wonderful talents of this energetic future leader as our own electorate MP. She may be placed somewhere else, she may be thrown aside or she may just walk away into a corporate life – whichever, the Altona electorate and the ALP are the losers! The swing could have been a super catastrophe for Brumby & Hennessy but thanks to her being a “Good Card Carrying Member”(and a genuinely nice person) she stood down quietly and they got away with it! Bring back the democracy that the Labor party is suppose to stand for.
The talk promoting Luba is probably from her big brother who wrote a letter to one of the local papers this week attacking one of Lubas opponents in the council (nice of him to stick up for his little sister). Either that or John ‘the don’ Ballestrino who has stuffed the local branch to the point where they only have 50 financial members.
Lubas vote in the council election was just over 50%. The other two candidates against her were independents, and one of them didnt put out any material during the election. Altona Meadows ward is very strong for Labour so Luba should have done well cos she was publicly endorsed by Kosky and Gillard. The rovers dog could have got 50% if they had a ALP badge on it in Altona Meadows.
The Altona Meadows Primary School booth yesterday gave Labour a primary vote of 59.6% even with an 8.3% swing against them.
Lubas win was not remarkable. Given the circumstances she should have done better. One of the independent councilors who stood against a ALP candidate and two independents got 47% in another of the council wards at the last election and he didn’t have a whole political party, deputy prime minister and two local MPs backing him.
I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Liberal Party standing a member in such a safe seat To help the West become marginal.Thanks to all the members of the Liberal party who come from all over the State to help the West get some justice from Mr Brumby and to see that we get our fair share of our Tax dollar. Also Yhank you Mark Rose for all your campaigning and Andrew for the hours and hard work they put into this campaign.They campaigned well and hard. Thank you to the thinking voters of the West who seriously thought about their vote before casting it.I can not understand people who vote for a party because they have a complex issue. It is not about the Party it is about your rights.To have your taxes spent in your area.
I have campaigned for more police in the West for six years, The Labor Govt has not listened. We have less numbers of Police on the beat then when we started Population almost doubled. Have you tried to get a peditrician appointment in The west for your Children.So whilst you others are thumbing your noses to people who stand up for your issues remember it is your vote that puts parties there and keeps them there, I believe Jill Hennessy does not believe there are major problems in the West she will come down to earth with an almighty crash .She will certainly have her work cut out for her.And should by some chance Labor do start to do things in the West remember it is the other parties who stood up for you.To get Labor to take us seriously
C’mon Andrew; tell us all about the LABOR SHENNANAGINS in pre-selection. Was it as bad as KOROROIT, ALBERT PARK, BRUNSWICK WEST and others; or worse. We could all do with ‘a good story’. (And THE FACTS MATE; JUST THE PLAIN FACTS).
It’s a pity that my beloved DLP; a TRUE SOCIALIST PARTY didn’t stand a candidate. Then all the issues of worker and family rights would have been brought up and highlighted; INCLUDING LABOR PRE-SELECTION RORTS.
C’mon Andrew; we are all counting on you.
Good post SMURF. If you and others can get LUBA TO STAND; she will walk it in on everyone elseees preferances.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/02/comment-on-the-altona-byelection-result.html#more
Wot R the odds on wh will lose the most. BRUMBY OR ELMER FUDD
This is the start of the end. People who voted Labor last time voted for Bracks and they were misled and ultimately ended up with Brumby.
With neanderthals like Hulls,Cameron,Pike,and Jennings is it any wonder they have come to a screeching halt.
People will vote for policies at the next election not for personalities and with Bracks spending time at home watching his dickhead son doing wheelies that valuable advantage is lost.Ted and John both have the same appeal to the person in the street but it will be who is tougher on crime that will win.
It is all Charlie Donnelly’s fault!
Thank you “candidate Liz” 4 ur comment at 11.07 today. Have been waiting too long for someone to correct you. Let’s face facts. YOU GOT PRESELECTED on a mixture of the “old-time ‘chooks brigade’ groupies led by THELMA MANSFIELD, Aided and abetted BY TED AND FOLLOWERS PLUS SOME “HAS-BEENS’ from the past. So you know which side of the bread to butter. We cant take you seriously at all.
The true facts are that TED IS DOING A KENNETT; by refusing to consider new younger and fresher candidates to replace those tired old party hacks already there – he is only keeping them on and supporting them at preselection BECAUSE HE NEEDS THEIR VOTE TO STAY LEADER. Selfish ignorant bastard who has hijacked the party and turned it into his own fiefdom. Let me assure you all that not everybody who opposes him and his cohorts are followers of Mr Kroger and coy. BUT WE SURE ARE QUICKLY LEARNING TO BE. And why? Amongst other reasons Teds smart self-serving behaviour everywhere and complete attempted isolation of legitimate party people who try to supply ideas ha sreally turned people off him. And that, sadly wont change.
I am really anoyed at the way Brumby is saying in every interview since last nght that he NOW knows things have to be done faster! If he is that dumb that we have to hold an expensive byelection to make him see the voters are not happy then he certainly doesn’t deserve to be in goverment, let alone Premier. And, as for his statements that the swing was a good result, he obviously believes and hopes, if he ignores the truth and says that often enough, people may just start to believe him! What was it, 62% primary vote win 3 years ago and down to 48% this election. Get rid of him he is almost as bad as Ted. There are a few very good Labor people waiting to be promoted – move out Brumby – you and your cohorts have bungled things badly…….
If the ALP does not think it is a problem look at the recent history of by-elections –
Kororoit 4% 2pp
Albert Park 2.6% 2pp
Williamstown 10% 2pp
Altona 12% 2pp
Clearly there is now a problem for the ALP.
The last post shows 2pp swings against labor. The primary vote swings are even greater.
The four inner city seats of Northcote, Brunswick, Richmond and Melbourne are now all at risk.
Northcote was certain to win until now, (but without that MPs husband in head office the question is will Northcote get the support it needs.)
The labor vote is now being squeezed in three directions…labor primary vote dropping, liberal vote is surging, and a small increase of greens vote.
The result of this…Bye bye Fi, Bron, Dick. Hello Phil Cleary member for Brunswick and three lower house Greens.
Ironic that The libs lower and order campaign will elect four non ALP MPs who will vote against most of their law and order agenda. And that we will get a Liberal government that will ignore public transport.
Most of this decay can be traced back to an indulgent factional war in Brimbank and Kororoit.
The responses to that have been surreal – it has shown a Premier and Ministers drunk on power conducting a private war against members of their own party.
Despite years of solid delivery by the Bracks government what we saw was the vengeful and vindictive nature of the Brumby faction played out in public over the spoils of office.
When we honestly look at the quality of the candidates in question in all these faction fights you have to ask what are we on about as a party. We white-anted our own brand.
The swing that is coming will only get worse – because the Brumby inner team are control freaks and do not respond under pressure.
That swing will see some good performers thrown out and please consider the deadwood that will remain: could the members for Kororoit, Clayton or Preston even mount an argument in public? Do they even know ALP policies let along community values? The swing that is coming is going to expose the Victorian party as an empty headed shell.
Voters are rejecting under delivery on transport and crime and also the very annoying and arrogant tone of this government.
From back bench MPs to public servants you will find this arrogant and bullying style.
How many discussions about community resources and issues end up in threats from these people?
The discussions usually end up with this: we have the money, you don’t, now shut up. Gee that’s what the libs used to say to us.
Social justice, the community interest, multiculturalism and other quaint labor values do not matter with Brumby.
Power has become the only labor value the leadership team values – and it is about to be taken away from them.
Once Brumby falls we will be left with a vast army of under performers who are tainted by his final years of neglect and arrogance. These ALP MPs will have zero credibility for a decade with the media and with the public.
ALP ALTONA MEMBERS report card on ALP transport performance in west has gone down a treat with voters…I think she told the local papers that transport in the west was ‘good but could be better’.
Hmmm…what does the 12 percent swing mean?…’poor and could not do worse’
Watch today tonight this evening and you will see just how out of touch the Premier and his head kicker Hulls are when it comes to violence on our streets.The end is coming for Hulls and Brumby!!
I was driving through Frankston today, and a security guard gave me a speeding ticket.
To anyone here saying that Ted will win the next election – put $1000 on it at your local betting agency if you are really that confident.
Mr Brumby now says there may be a problem in the West. Did the lights on the bridge turn his brain on. as well. Jill Hennesay saying the fantastice tranpost in the West. Why is it that we have a single rail line through Altona and why is People are late home for dinner constantly maybe they are just hanging around the stations waiting to be attacked. Get out of your limos and catch the train .But do not look so affluent as you will get mugged.Do not bother to call for the police as they will not be able to attend as they are not there.When you do get mugged catch and ambo otherwise you will sit in a queue in the hospital waiting for attention. Then they will have to find a bed somewhere else in Victoria. The odds are they will not have one available in the West. Do not think about driving your car as it will take forever in the traffic Jams. Then you will have to wait at the railway crossings forever.The police will not catch you on the roads that is why you have money raising cameras which we all know where they are.You obviously do not live in the areas where the hoons control the streets.But you are probably right Jill we have no problems in the West. We are so well looked after by this Government.Keep dreaming.
Should have NOT gone for “Barge Arse” and picked “Luba with nice Boobas”.
We’ll be back nobody wants DEAD TED
Lori
You have been banging on for years as a so called community activist. Everyone knows in Werribee you are in with the Libs,and Rose and you are thick as thieves. How about finally joining the libs and putting your money where your mouth is. Some of us are sick of you always putting our area down. If you do not like it say so and I will send you a train ticket out of town. (one way of course)
Pay up or shut up. I guess nobody ever bothered to give you a name or are you too ashamed to use it. Ithink I have apretty good idea who you gutless wonders are. I will bang on to help this community as long as I can. and will not be silent by slanderous . I have no intentions of joining any political party. You have no idea where my politcal allegences live. For you interest they lies with this community and the people of Victoria. I will continue to do what ever I have to to make this a marginal seat which is more than you lame brain would have the courage to do. I get more respect from the right people in this community than you will ever do. Those who denegrate me have the problem I do Not.If ever you have the courage to put your name to print I will challenge you to a public debate at any time.I am not worried about your comments I have lived in Werribee long before you and I love this town I never denegrate it I attack the people who will not stand up for this community and take it for granted. So stick that in your pipe and smoke it.Come out of the closet coward.
Pay up or shut up. Please post any comment i have ever made to put Werribee down. and Buy the way keep your money for the ticket i wonder if you actually have a real job.or live off the public purse.
Down in Altona is there any fine dining? Where is one to enjoy luncheon? Where do you suggest I purchase my morning soy latte?
Jill my petal. It is with joy that I welcome another shapely gourmand into the Parliamentary fold. Come let me embrace you in my ample bosom. I am free anytime you choose to partake in fine dining in the shadows of the refinery
I can assure you Lori the police do not appreciate your constant harping about them and talking up cime in the area.
Now I know who you are. The crime is there and that is the facts. Why do the officers ask me to keep up the push. Maybe it is the bosses who get upset not the member who are under the stress. I do not talk up drime I talk about numbers so get your facts right.What have you ever done to help them and the public who can not get responses from the Police. Why are 70000 People signing a petition. I talk to more of the public than you would ever do they all tell the same story of lack of police attendance. So maybe you should get out of noddy land and listen to the public.Why is it that we are requested to go to all areas of victoria to get the petition signed.Would it be just one policeman who says they do like what we do. You do not need to put your name here now I know who you are and what you are doing.
sorry about the type error
Labour is doing everything it can to be voted out. Now we need the Shadow Ministers of Ballieu to make at least some effort to get voted in!
Lori, they are laughing at you, not with you!
who cares that is their problem.Unless you can give facts go away. Yoy are one nasty person
The Alona results is an indication that the electorate is not willing to see Labor elected to a historic third term.
The normal by election swing is 4 to 6 percent TCP. A 12 percent swing singles major dissatisfaction in the government’s performance.
Protest votes are common in a by-election but I am at a loss to see why the protest vote went straight to the liberal party ads a primary vote. This is the main concern worrying Labor.
The 12% swing was not just a protest vote. Minor candidates were not the beneficiary of the swing. The Liberals received a 12 swing in their primary vote and collected very little form other minor candidates.
If this is repeated Brumby will lose government and what was considered safe labor seats in the inner city could be at risk.
The fact that the vote favored the Liberal Party and not the Greens may be a blessing in disguise for some safe seats under threat by a Green push. Melbourne should hold on as a result.
But seats like Prahran and Albert Park are at risk. Not because if a strong candidature coming from the Liberal party but like the Liberals in 1999 Labor could lose the election by default not design.
If this swing was transferred to the Federal parliament we would also lose Melbourne Ports and a host of other inner city seats, all which must now be considered marginal.
Ivanhoe will swing 20% to libs after a series of community protests and frustration over several issues
For few years, we had the Labor Premier John Brumby and his Police Commissioner in denial over violence in our streets, in particular violence targeted against Victorians of Indian background or Indians living in Victoria.
The huge swing against the State Labor Government in the Altona by-election was a tribute to Ted Baillieu’s honesty and courage and readiness to speak the truth in the face of terrible obfuscation by the State Labor Government.
Thank you ALTONA voters for showing your support to Ted Baillieu, and the Indian community.
I sincerely hope John Brumby and VA SIN AGENT A SIN gather the strength to speak out truth.
For few years, we had the Labor Premier John Brumby and his Police Commissioner in denial over violence in our streets, in particular violence targeted against Victorians of Indian background or Indians living in Victoria.
The huge swing against the State Labor Government in the Altona by-election was a tribute to Ted Baillieu’s honesty and courage and readiness to speak the truth in the face of terrible obfuscation by the State Labor Government.
Thank you ALTONA voters for showing your support to Ted Baillieu, and the Indian community.
I sincerely hope John Brumby and Vasin Agentasin gather the strength to speak out truth.
Indians will prevail in the next State Election.
Vote 1 Shetty
After all I hate Brumby and have been a Liberal member a long time.
GAUTAM FISA and VASAN AGENT A SON have created this mess.