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Federal Government

KEVIN THE WRECKER: Rudd may not nominate on Monday in order to do Gillard slowly

RuddwreckerSome in Labor caucus have told VEXNEWS they fear that Kevin Rudd will attempt to drag out their leadership crisis by declining to challenge PM Gillard. Certainly, the PM’s strong showing at her morning presser will give some of his supporters pause. The numbers are at least 2 to 1 in her favour, well-informed insiders say, and those like Senator Doug Cameron have been pushing for a much later contest despite the fact that a delay could do much to derail the ALP’s state election campaign in Queensland.

Rudd’s backers may use the threat of a no-contest to try to force a delay in the ballot from Monday, some speculated. It all suggests that even those in his camp realise that they haven’t a chance of even achieving a respectable result, especially after what most MPs regard as his outrageously melodramatic attack on the PM from Washington DC in the wee hours of their night.

While it would be regarded by most in caucus and the ALP more broadly as a low-act, it would certainly be an effective way of maintaining suspense over where the numbers really lie in caucus. While the contest is deferred, Rudd backers like Immigration minister Chris Bowen will be able to maintain the fiction about his numbers that it’s closer than the reality.

It’s certainly a big character test for Rudd.

Grim days indeed for Labor…

UPDATE: One Labor MP told VEXNEWS he was so impressed with PM Gillard’s stirring performance at her press conference this morning, he recalled Eleanor Roosevelt’s line:

A woman is like a tea bag- you never know how strong she is until she gets in hot water.

Discussion

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  1. Gillard said today that she thought Rudd may nominate as well as her. Since when does a spill for the leadership have so much discussion before the vote.

    I agree Rudd may not nominate and then he can see Gillard take the ALP to a massive defeat at the next election provided the Liberals don’t start a similar bun fight for leadership – unlikely though.

    Posted by Adrian Jackson | February 23, 2012, 12:12
  2. Gillard the dirty bitch will lead ALP to a massive defeat.

    Posted by anon | February 23, 2012, 12:37
  3. I forget who said in riposte: a woman in politics is like a tea bag. She drains all her strength into the hot water and ends up being thrown out limp and useless.

    If I was Kevin Rudd and I wanted to win at all costs, I would get some well placed sources to put out the story that Kevin has an alternative to being Prime Minister of a senior role in the UN. He is not going to stay a back-bencher and give up that opportunity. If he loses, he will resign.

    This will trigger a vote of no confidence and the election will be a wipe-out for 25 to 30 ALP members of the Reps.

    The choice for them will be between a guaranteed loss of parliamentary privileges in three months or a less certain loss in fifteen to eighteen months.

    People who fall in behind faction leaders know the value of a well placed threat. Factional discipline only breaks down when the faction leaders can’t guarantee your safety.

    Rudd is not going to win by being liked or respected. He is despised and hated by a clear majority of the caucus. He can only win by being feared as well.

    Gillard is in a safe seat that the ALP will never lose even if she resigns in a huff – not least because Rudd will have a temporary poll bounce. Holding a marginal seat, lost to the Liberals in 1996 and won back in 1998, Rudd has the power to inflict maximum damage and he needs to be prepared to do so – mutual assured destruction is what enabled the Russians to extend their hegemony during the cold war.

    That and a bit of a buy off of some key people – like Michael Danby for Foreign Affairs – after all Danby is in a now very marginal seat – will be enough to pick up the 20 – 25 votes he is short right now.

    Posted by Giuseppe De Simone | February 23, 2012, 12:41
  4. As a Liberal voter, I much prefer Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd personally.

    That’s not just for the obvious reason that Julia Gillard is going to be easier to beat.

    It’s because I suspect Julia Gillard is much more conservative than she pretends to be.

    Posted by Giuseppe De Simone | February 23, 2012, 12:49
  5. When the Prime Minister listed her government’s achievements today, I could sense in her voice that she was the least excited about the carbon tax imposed on her as the cost of government.

    The Prime Minister knows it is a totemic issue within the Greens.

    The non-compensated sectors of the economy that are energy dependent are the ones that will suffer the most. Government compensation is going to households alone not to small business.

    The Prime Minister knows in short order the Carbon Tax will dictate ameliorative measures for manufacturing, tourism/hospitality and retail – which is where the jobs outside the government sector are. This will involve significant subsidies and protection that will impact government expenditure. The car industry may be saved by a few billions spent in profit protection to Detroit. However, the ancillary car industry is getting little protection and will struggle against component importers.

    The growth areas of health and education are reliant on government funding – whether in the public sphere or the private sector.

    Discretionary retail will face higher rents and energy costs – making bricks and mortar establishments even less competitive.

    Tourism and hospitality will similarly be hurt by the increased cost of energy as it is a major input into all activities in this sector. People will fly out on Emirates or Ethidad or some other Middle East carrier to Asia and Europe rather than stay here and be fleeced by taxation.

    The tragedy will be that these impacts may not start to bite until the next Federal election and the defeated ALP opposition may not have the decency to remove the tax in the Senate when asked to do so by the Liberal government.

    Posted by Giuseppe De Simone | February 23, 2012, 12:58
  6. What is forgotten in all the trash talk re Rudd vs Gillard … is that the former PM didn’t have the guts to take the issue of his validity as a PM to a caucus vote … yes that’s right – HE RESIGNED rather than putting the matter to a vote of confidence…

    GUTLESS

    Just like many internet bloggers who drunkenly post under a non-de-plume at 1:30 AM only to deny all responsibility… I wouldn’t be suprised that he pikes it on Monday …

    Posted by justdiss | February 23, 2012, 13:21
  7. Martin Ferguson has just backed Rudd if he nominates for leader on Monday. Ferguson, Roxon or Plibersek would be suitable candidates for the leadership too if Rudd does not nominate.

    Posted by Adrian Jackson | February 23, 2012, 14:46
  8. Kevin Rudd brought the ALP back into government and his reward? He gets sacked for working so hard, His work patterns were derided By Gillard and her mates oh how immature is that? So what did Ronald Reagnn do but often have an afteroon nap what about MrsThacher,what about their work patterns hey That is jsut a crass excuse that Gillard hackers throw up! We hear from Gillard that the Rudd government was in paralysis if so why was it allowed to degenerate so far if this was so true! That smacks of bad practice! funny didnt Rudd gets us out of the Global financial crisis that doesnt look like paraysis to anyone !!So yet again we catch Ms G here giving us a very non credible version of evenst so who can belive a word she Gillard ever says! Not many except her blind suppoters Hey Kirner aint it disgusting what they did to Kevin Rudd in the first place breaching the trust of the Australian voters who expectd that he be given a fair go as a first term PM! Gillard is being propped up by her Cronies who all wanted a share of the pie that the spill of Rudd as PM created. hey ALP dont take the voting public for fools and we want to know why does Gillard want to be PM so desperatley gosh she has a giant ego given her appalling standing in the polls think she should have some humilty and modesty and admit she is not up to the task of PM she never was.

    Posted by EGO | February 23, 2012, 15:28
  9. Come back Kevin show to us that is not true that pokies loby the minning bosses the bank cartel are all ruling this country.

    Posted by X-labor member | February 23, 2012, 19:20
  10. Ego- you’ll find the treasurer, finance minister and RBA as well as the mining industry were responsible for getting Australia through the first part of the global financial crisis. Krudd and his other ministers gave us the pink batts scandal, a few deaths on the job, a destroyed industry, enough broken promises to build a complete party platform and life support for the fergies and that fat fuck Kim…so when you look at it I’d still rather a hole in the head.

    Posted by Charlie Douglas | February 23, 2012, 20:13
  11. Was ejecting Carr from cabinet a wise move? Would rudd have much hope without the socialist left votes?

    [VEXNEWS: Probably not but I’m not sure that’s the reason most of the Victorian Left MPs (not all by any means) are leaning to Rudd]

    Posted by Outsider | February 23, 2012, 22:23
  12. The ALP needs not only a modern day Ben Chifley but to aim even higher than Chifley by having modrn versions of Lack Lang. Premier Lang from NSW put working class people first and but himself on the line against the British bankers and their rates of interest. Lang even went against Chifley Labor on this. Proof positive that individuals do in fact count even if Chifleya dn his crew stopped talking to Lang after this great Labor man got elected to the House of Representatives.

    Rudd’s sitation is much different to Lang’s. Rudd deserves to be made PM to see out a full term denied him and that’s all that is owed to him. Lang on the other hand was greater than the ALP (‘the Party’) in that he put the people of NSW BEFORE the Party in seeking to alleviate the dire poverty of those times; going against the Chifley Laborites who wanted to preserve a supposed reputation on paying back foreign loans at a higher rate of interest.

    Posted by Michael Webb | February 23, 2012, 23:22
  13. ***The ALP needs not only a modern day Ben Chifley but to aim even higher than Chifley by having modrn versions of Lack Lang***

    Sheesh. No wonder you people are in such a mess. Hey, the ALP is full of solicitors and union officials, okay? Not tram drivers and coal miners. The prime minister worked as a solicitor for the ambulance chasers Slater & Gordon, while her boyfriend invested his kickbacks. But don’t worry about that because she was just a young ingenue of 39, bedazzled by love. This week, while Australians were battling to balance the budget and wondering if they could last until payday, the PM hosted some gays at The Lodge to discuss the timeline for homosexual marriage legislation.

    How do you think Jack Lang would view those priorities? How about Ben Chifley; would he tax the water we drink by building desal plants, and the air we breathe with a carbon tax? It is the policies that are destroying Labor, not the personalities. Truth is, Aussies are remarkably complacent about politicians’ foibles. If Labor wants back in, they have to change more than the PM. Rudd wants to be PM again? Easy. Come out against the carbon tax. Cut the fuel excise. Put the NBN on hold, explaining that we can’t afford it at this time. A rapturous electorate will turn its eyes towards a Labor politician who just for once BLOODY WELL LISTENS.

    Posted by Byron in Wahroonga | February 24, 2012, 0:56
  14. rudd declares his candidacy and does so with a barrage of meaningless catchphrases – i.e how will he strenghthen manufacturing – code for north korean industry policy

    Posted by so surprised | February 24, 2012, 14:45
  15. Industry policy south Korean style I think you mean and I would support the strong nationalist elements of such a policy which is part fo the best in working class Labor traditions of the Langite NSW kind of Labor that needs reviving. Such a revial would be far superior to even Chifley Labor and light years ahead of the dud DLP kind under its present leadership.

    Posted by Michael Webb | February 26, 2012, 19:16